After three multiplicative steps, k upward moves and 3−k downward moves giveFor k=0,1,2,3, respectively, the prices are 72.9, 89.1, 108.9, 133.1. Since the steps are independent, the endpoint probabilities are binomial:In the displayed ascending-price order they are (1−p)3, 3p(1−p)2, 3p2(1−p), and p3. Different paths with the same count of up moves recombine because multiplication by 1.1 and 0.9 commutes.
S3(k)=100(1.1)k(0.9)3−k.
Pr(S3=S3(k))=(k3)pk(1−p)3−k.
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