Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford / 2021 / 3 / a / i

Set $S={\sum }_i{x}_i$ and $N=nm$. Conditional independence of the binomial distribution observations gives the likelihood functionThe prior distribution is the beta distribution with parameters $(1,\beta )$. By Bayes' theorem, multiplying the prior density by the likelihood function gives a posterior density proportional toRecognizing and normalizing this beta distribution givesfor $0<\theta <1$. This is Beta-binomial conjugacy; the original binomial coefficients cancel in the normalization because they are independent of $\theta$.