Past exam of the topics in applied mathematics course of the University of Oxford / 2008 / A / 2 / b / i / Solution

The delayed influx $rI(t-\tau )S(t-\tau )$ represents animals exposed one incubation period earlier who enter the infective individual compartment now. They die at the instantaneous rate $aI(t)$ once in that compartment. The displayed bookkeeping removes an animal from $S$ at the same delayed time that it enters $I$, preserving $S+I+R$.

For this bookkeeping, $S$ must include the exposed animals which have not yet completed incubation period. If $S$ were instead defined as strictly unexposed susceptible individuals, its loss term would be the current exposure rate and a separate latent compartment would be needed. The calculations here follow the printed delay differential equation. A full initial-value problem for a delay differential equation also needs a history on $[-\tau ,0]$; the following small-delay expansion of an epidemic transfer rate concerns a smooth compatible history and the regular regime assumed by the question.