Past exam of the topics in applied mathematics course of the University of Oxford / 2008 / A / 2 / b

The delayed influx $rI(t-\tau )S(t-\tau )$ represents animals exposed one incubation period earlier who enter the infective individual compartment now. They die at the instantaneous rate $aI(t)$ once in that compartment. The displayed bookkeeping removes an animal from $S$ at the same delayed time that it enters $I$, preserving $S+I+R$.

For this bookkeeping, $S$ must include the exposed animals which have not yet completed incubation period. If $S$ were instead defined as strictly unexposed susceptible individuals, its loss term would be the current exposure rate and a separate latent compartment would be needed. The calculations here follow the printed delay differential equation. A full initial-value problem for a delay differential equation also needs a history on $[-\tau ,0]$; the following small-delay expansion of an epidemic transfer rate concerns a smooth compatible history and the regular regime assumed by the question.

In the first-order Taylor expansion correction it suffices to use the zeroth-order derivatives. They giveThe delayed product is consequentlyMultiplying by $r$ and substituting into the two transfer equations producesThe opposite signs of $f$ and $g$ are also required by conservation law of $S+I+R$: this correction changes the timing of the transfer between $S$ and $I$, while leaving the instantaneous death term unchanged.

At the retained order define $K=1+\tau r(I-S)$. Neglecting terms of order $a\tau$ in the incidence correction givesDividing and expanding consistently,Thus the susceptible count $S_{\ast }$ at the first threshold crossing obeys the same retained-order equation as before:It is important to distinguish completed case transfers at quarantine from all infections already initiated. Let the quarantine time be $T$. Isolation prevents exposures after $T$, but animals exposed during $(T-\tau ,T)$ still finish their incubation period during $(T,T+\tau )$. Their number, in the printed bookkeeping, isThe infection cases transferred by time $T$ among the initial $S$ class number $S_0-S_{\ast }$. Adding those pending infection cases gives the eventual number who catch the infectious disease:This adds only infections caused by exposures before isolation; it does not allow secondary transmission after quarantine. If one asks instead only for the transfers completed by the instant of quarantine, the answer is $S_0-S_{\ast }$. The distinction is necessary because the model keeps incubating animals in its $S$ compartment.