Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 221 4 iii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Condition on the independent external sample, and abbreviate and . Expanding the plug-in estimator around the true nuisance functions giveswhere because the two nuisance mean squared errors vanish, the evaluation sample is independent of the nuisance fits, is bounded, and has bounded support. The linear term is the empirical average of the influence function, so the central limit theorem givesThe remaining bias obeys the Cauchy-Schwarz inequalityThus the claimed conclusion follows under the standard product-rate conditionequivalently . Slutsky theorem then yields
As printed, the paper instead assumes only , which is insufficient with its stated definition of MSE. For example, deterministic nuisance errors of size have both MSEs equal to and satisfy the printed condition, while the scaled product bias is . The result therefore requires the stronger condition above, or “MSE” in the printed rate must be read as root mean squared error.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 225 2 a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Use the test statisticUnder the null hypothesis, the Hilbert-space central limit theorem gives , where is centered Gaussian with covariance . If , its Karhunen–Loève expansion and the continuous mapping theorem givefor independent . Reject for above the quantile of this weighted chi-squared law; replacing the by empirical covariance eigenvalues gives a plug-in estimator of the critical value.
Under every fixed alternative , the weak law of large numbers gives , so and the test is consistent. Under a local alternative , the limit is , which describes its local power.