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An accelerated failure time model changes the time scale of a common event-time distribution. In a log-location-scale representation, $T_z=e^{\mu (z)}{e}^{\sigma X}$ with common $X$ and positive scale $\sigma$. An additive change in $\mu (z)$ multiplies all time quantiles by the same factor. A larger time multiplier indicates longer survival, whereas a larger hazard multiplier in a proportional hazards model indicates faster failure.

In a proportional hazards model $h(t\mid z)=h_0(t)e^{{\beta }^{T}z}$, the baseline survival function is $S_0(t)=\exp \{-{\int }_0^t{h}_0(u)du\}$, corresponding to the reference covariate vector $z=0$. Integrating the hazard function gives $S(t\mid z)=S_0(t{)}^{e^{{\beta }^{T}z}}$. Estimated hazard ratios alone therefore do not determine absolute survival probabilities: the baseline hazard or baseline survival function must also be estimated.

When event times are observed only in intervals and the covariate vector is constant within an interval, a proportional hazards model gives $p_{ij}=1-\exp [-\Delta H_{0j}\exp ({\beta }^T{z}_i)]$. Thus the interval event probability has a complementary log-log link, with ${\alpha }_j=\log \Delta H_{0j}$ an interval-specific intercept. The person-period Bernoulli likelihood models several events in one interval directly, without inventing their order. It needs appropriate independent censoring assumptions and a consistent account of interval entry and observation.

In a proportional hazards model $h_i(t)=h_0(t){\varphi }_i$, the hazard multiplier ${\varphi }_i>0$ is the relative hazard against the reference multiplier one. In a Cox proportional-hazards model it is $e^{x_i^T\beta }$. Ratios of two time-constant multipliers give constant hazard ratios; time-dependent multipliers require a corresponding extension.

Condition on a frailty random variable value $U=u$. Integrating the conditional hazard function gives $u{e}^{\beta z}{H}_0(t)$, so the conditional survivor function isAverage this conditional probability over the common frailty density $g$:By definition the Laplace transform of $g$ is $\tilde{g}(s)={\int }_0^{\infty }{e}^{-su}g(u)du$. HenceThis averages survivor functions, not hazards. Differentiating its logarithm, when justified, givesThus the population hazard function uses the mean frailty among current survivors, explaining why a conditional proportional hazards model may cease to be proportional after frailty is integrated out.

For ${\sigma }^2>0$, a gamma distribution with unit mean and variance ${\sigma }^2$ has shape and rate $\psi =1/{\sigma }^2$. Substituting its Laplace transform into the preceding result givesIts negative logarithmic derivative is the population hazard function:Consequently, at times with $h_0(t)>0$, the gamma frailty hazard ratio isAt a time when both hazards vanish this formula is a continuous extension; the literal ratio $0/0$ is undefined.

Write $a=e^{\beta }>0$ and $x={\sigma }^2{H}_0(t)\ge 0$. Two useful identities areFor small cumulative exposure $x$, $r=a\{1+(1-a)x+O(x^2)\}$, so it starts at the conditional hazard ratio $e^{\beta }$. If $\beta >0$, it decreases towards one; if $\beta <0$, it increases towards one; and if $\beta =0$, it equals one throughout. It stays between $e^{\beta }$ and one and never crosses one.

For fixed ${\sigma }^2>0$, the late-time limit is one provided $H_0(t)\to \infty$. If instead the integrated hazard tends to a finite value $K$, the limiting hazard ratio is $a(1+{\sigma }^{2}K)/(1+a{\sigma }^{2}K)$, which need not be one. Elapsed time alone does not imply unbounded exposure.

For small ${\sigma }^2$ at a fixed time, $r\to e^{\beta }$. At ${\sigma }^2=0$ the frailty degenerates to $U=1$, giving an ordinary proportional hazards model. For large ${\sigma }^2$ at a fixed time with $H_0(t)>0$, $r\to 1$; at time zero, however, it remains $e^{\beta }$. Thus that variance limit is not uniform near zero. Larger heterogeneity accelerates the movement of the population hazard ratio towards one. The mechanism is survival selection: frailer individuals leave the population sooner, particularly in the higher-hazard group, while each individual's conditional multiplier remains fixed.

$Y_{j,k}$ is the number in group $k$ still observed and event-free immediately before event time $a_j$: its group-specific risk set size. Set $Y_j=Y_{j,0}+Y_{j,1}$. Under the common hazard function and conditional on exactly one event at that time, each at-risk individual has the same infinitesimal event probability. ThereforeThe indicator $g_{\pi (j)}$ records whether the event came from group 1, while $p(j,1)$ is its conditional expectation under equal hazards. Thus $z_j$ is the observed-minus-expected group-1 event count at that time. Under the null these are martingale differences, with conditional varianceThe log-rank statistic $z={\sum }_j{z}_j$ has null mean zero. Its predictable variance estimate is $V={\sum }_j{p}_j(1-p_j)$, so the equal-hazards test usesUse a two-sided large-sample log-rank test if no direction was prespecified; $V>0$ and adequate information are needed. The variance is the no-ties form. A positive $z$ indicates more group-1 events than expected. Independent censoring conditional on the model is required for these at-risk event intensities to describe the data.

Under the proportional hazards model, the total instantaneous group-$k$ rate is $Y_{j,k}{e}^{\beta k}{h}_0(a_j)$. Conditioning on the next event cancels the baseline hazard, givingKeep $z_j$ defined using its null probability $p(j,1)$, as in the question. Its conditional expectation under the alternative isIt is zero at $\beta =0$, as required, and has the sign of $\beta$ when both groups remain at risk. Replacing $p(j,1)$ inside the definition of $z_j$ with the alternative probability would give a different residual, whose mean would instead be zero under that alternative.

A proportional hazards model assigns individual $i$ the hazard function $h_i(t)=h_0(t){\varphi }_i$, where $h_0$ is the baseline hazard for multiplier one and ${\varphi }_i>0$ is a time-constant hazard multiplier. In a Cox proportional-hazards model, ${\varphi }_i=e^{x_i^T\beta }$ for a covariate vector $x_i$ and coefficient vector $\beta$; ratios $h_i(t)/h_k(t)={\varphi }_i/{\varphi }_k$ are constant whenever the baseline is nonzero.

Assume independent individuals, independent censoring conditional on the covariates, and no tied events. Immediately before an event at $t$, condition on its observed risk set $R(t)$ and one event in a small time interval. The individual event probability is $h_0(t){\varphi }_{i}dt+o(dt)$, while the total is $h_0(t){\sum }_{k\in R(t)}{\varphi }_{k}dt+o(dt)$. Their limiting ratio is ${\varphi }_i/{\sum }_{k\in R(t)}{\varphi }_k$. Multiplication over observed events gives the Cox partial likelihoodThe unspecified baseline hazard cancels. This is the usual successive conditional event contribution defining the partial likelihood, not the full event-time likelihood conditioned simultaneously on all event times.

For the four individuals the successive event risk sets are $\{a,b,c,d\}$, $\{c,d\}$ and $\{d\}$. Individual $b$ leaves at its right censoring time and contributes no event numerator. ConsequentlyThe last event contributes one and carries no further relative-risk information.

The ordinary Nelson–Aalen estimator adds $d_j/r_j$ at event time $t_j$. Under a fitted proportional hazards model, replace the number at risk by the sum of fitted hazard multipliers:This is the Breslow estimator of the integrated baseline hazard, using fitted regression coefficients obtained by maximizing the Cox partial likelihood. The denominator arises because the total event intensity is $h_0(t){\sum }_{i\in R(t)}{\varphi }_i$; with every multiplier equal to one it reduces to the Nelson–Aalen estimator.

The estimator is right-continuous, so ${\hat{H}}_0(t_a)$ already includes the event at $t_a$. Subtracting it leaves only the events at $t_c$ and $t_d$, whose risk sets are $\{c,d\}$ and $\{d\}$. HenceThere is no increment at the censoring time $t_b$. If the lower endpoint had instead been $t_a-$, an additional $1/({\hat{\varphi }}_a+{\hat{\varphi }}_b+{\hat{\varphi }}_c+{\hat{\varphi }}_d)$ would be present. The final singleton event can increase the baseline hazard estimate even though its partial likelihood contribution is one.

Letbe the baseline cumulative hazard. Under the proportional hazards model,ThusIndependence makes the log likelihood

In a proportional hazards model, individual $i$ hasThe exponential term is the hazard multiplier relative to the baseline hazard $h_0$. With $h_0$ unspecified, the Cox partial likelihood multiplies, over event times, the failing subject's multiplier divided by the sum of multipliers in the current risk set. After estimating $\beta$, the Breslow estimator is

A Stratified Cox model uses a separate baseline hazard $h_{0s}$ for each stratum but a common $\beta$. Its partial likelihood is the product of within-stratum partial likelihoods, and a separate integrated baseline hazard is estimated in each stratum.

In a matched pair, the only informative comparison occurs while both members remain at risk. If the exposed member fails first, the pair contributes $e^{\beta }/(1+e^{\beta })$; if the unexposed member fails first, it contributes $1/(1+e^{\beta })$. A censoring as the first recorded time gives no informative failure comparison, and any later one-person risk set contributes one. With only two observations per stratum, each stratum supplies almost no information about its arbitrary baseline hazard, so a useful common integrated baseline-hazard estimate is generally unavailable.

A proportional hazards model has $h(t\mid g)=h_0(t)r(g)$, with a time-independent hazard ratio. In the Cox proportional-hazards model, $r(g)=e^{\beta g}$ and the baseline hazard $h_0$ is unspecified. At each untied event time, conditioning on the identity of the person who fails given the current risk set produces the factorMultiplying these factors gives the Cox partial likelihood. It is called partial because it uses the conditional event ordering information that identifies $\beta$ while discarding the part of the full likelihood involving the unspecified baseline hazard.