For positive claim sizes, a random sum of independent claims is zero exactly when its count is zero. Its law is a mixture distribution of a zero atom of mass and, with weight , a random sum whose count has the zero-truncated claim-count distribution. An independent Bernoulli random variable multiplying that positive component gives the same law. This is distinct from arbitrarily inserting additional zeros into an otherwise unchanged count law.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 31 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Condition on the count and use the independence of random variables of the claim sizes. For their joint exponential transform factors, while for the empty sum contributes . Consequently the law of total expectation givesThis random sum of independent claims transform uses both independence assumptions: the count must be independent of the entire claim-size sequence, and the sizes must be mutually independent with the same probability distribution. The probability generating function is interpreted through its defining nonnegative series. The identity holds as a finite moment-generating function wherever that series is finite; outside that domain the expectation and series can agree at . In particular a positive argument may take beyond , so finiteness does not follow merely from the usual unit-disk domain of a probability generating function.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 31 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
The moment-generating function of a mixture distribution is the mixture of its component transforms, soFor the aggregate, positivity of every claim implies exactly when . ChooseIf , take to have the zero-truncated claim-count distribution, namely the conditional law of given . ThenChoose this count independently of a fresh independent claim-size sequence and put . Its probability distribution is that of conditional on being positive. Thus the hurdle decomposition of a positive random sum givesand an independent Bernoulli random variable of success probability realizes . This establishes the distributional representation, including that is itself a positive random sum of independent claims. If , the aggregate is identically zero; set and choose any positive , for example one claim. Conditioning the count on positivity is then unnecessary and would be undefined.
For the specified geometric distribution on the nonnegative integers,An exponential distribution of expected value has transform . Substitution yieldsHence is exponential with rate and expected value . This is the geometric sum of exponential variables with a rescaling of the claim mean. Identification can also use the uniqueness theorem for Laplace transforms of nonnegative random variables by taking .
The resulting distribution function isIts jump of size at zero is important: the aggregate law is not a purely continuous exponential distribution.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 34 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
For the exponential distribution with expected value ,The Poisson distribution has both expected value and variance equal to . Substitution into the random sum of independent claims formulas gives the portfolio A moments
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 34 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
To distinguish the random intensity from its possible values, write it as . Its law is a gamma distribution with shape and rate . HenceFor the Poisson mixture, conditional expectation and conditional variance both equal . The law of total expectation and the law of total variance yieldwhere . Applying the random sum of independent claims formulas with the exponential distribution of the claim sizes gives the portfolio B momentsAt the matched intensity , the expected value for portfolio A is also , whereas its variance is . Thus the expected totals agree, but mixing increases the variance:The extra term is precisely .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 34 1 Solution 2026-10-06
Write and . For the random sum of independent claims, conditioning on givesThe law of total expectation and the law of total variance therefore give the aggregate momentsThe first term in the variance measures variation of the individual claims at a fixed count; the second measures variation of the count itself. These formulas require the indicated moments to be finite.
For the moment-generating function, independent random variables givewhere is the probability generating function. This identity holds wherever the expectations are finite; in particular a moment-generating function need not exist for positive for an arbitrary positive claim distribution. The empty sum for is zero.