For positive claim sizes, a random sum of independent claims is zero exactly when its count is zero. Its law is a mixture distribution of a zero atom of mass and, with weight , a random sum whose count has the zero-truncated claim-count distribution. An independent Bernoulli random variable multiplying that positive component gives the same law. This is distinct from arbitrarily inserting additional zeros into an otherwise unchanged count law.
Condition on the count and use the independence of random variables of the claim sizes. For their joint exponential transform factors, while for the empty sum contributes . Consequently the law of total expectation gives
This random sum of independent claims transform uses both independence assumptions: the count must be independent of the entire claim-size sequence, and the sizes must be mutually independent with the same probability distribution. The probability generating function is interpreted through its defining nonnegative series. The identity holds as a finite moment-generating function wherever that series is finite; outside that domain the expectation and series can agree at . In particular a positive argument may take beyond , so finiteness does not follow merely from the usual unit-disk domain of a probability generating function.
The moment-generating function of a mixture distribution is the mixture of its component transforms, so
For the aggregate, positivity of every claim implies exactly when . Choose
If , take to have the zero-truncated claim-count distribution, namely the conditional law of given . Then
Choose this count independently of a fresh independent claim-size sequence and put . Its probability distribution is that of conditional on being positive. Thus the hurdle decomposition of a positive random sum gives
and an independent Bernoulli random variable of success probability realizes . This establishes the distributional representation, including that is itself a positive random sum of independent claims. If , the aggregate is identically zero; set and choose any positive , for example one claim. Conditioning the count on positivity is then unnecessary and would be undefined.
For the specified geometric distribution on the nonnegative integers,
An exponential distribution of expected value has transform . Substitution yields
Hence is exponential with rate and expected value . This is the geometric sum of exponential variables with a rescaling of the claim mean. Identification can also use the uniqueness theorem for Laplace transforms of nonnegative random variables by taking .
The resulting distribution function is
Its jump of size at zero is important: the aggregate law is not a purely continuous exponential distribution.
For the exponential distribution with expected value ,
The Poisson distribution has both expected value and variance equal to . Substitution into the random sum of independent claims formulas gives the portfolio A moments
To distinguish the random intensity from its possible values, write it as . Its law is a gamma distribution with shape and rate . Hence
For the Poisson mixture, conditional expectation and conditional variance both equal . The law of total expectation and the law of total variance yield
where . Applying the random sum of independent claims formulas with the exponential distribution of the claim sizes gives the portfolio B moments
At the matched intensity , the expected value for portfolio A is also , whereas its variance is . Thus the expected totals agree, but mixing increases the variance:
The extra term is precisely .
Write and . For the random sum of independent claims, conditioning on gives
The law of total expectation and the law of total variance therefore give the aggregate moments
The first term in the variance measures variation of the individual claims at a fixed count; the second measures variation of the count itself. These formulas require the indicated moments to be finite.
For the moment-generating function, independent random variables give
where is the probability generating function. This identity holds wherever the expectations are finite; in particular a moment-generating function need not exist for positive for an arbitrary positive claim distribution. The empty sum for is zero.