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At each node of a binomial tree, a claim with next-period values $V_u,V_d$ has valuewhere $q$ is the local risk-neutral probability in a binomial market. For an American claim, replace this continuation value by the maximum of continuation and immediate exercise value.

The risk-neutral one-step mean multiplier must equal the bank growth factor:Thus the risk-neutral probability in a binomial market isIt lies strictly between zero and one, consistent with the no-arbitrage inequality $d<e^r<u$.

With the rate $r=0$, the risk-neutral probability in a binomial market must satisfyThe first stock gives $0.8+0.6q=1$, hence $q=1/3$. The second gives $0.9+0.3q=1$, confirming the same answer. ThusTake the successive up/down choices independent under this measure, so both stock prices are martingales. The martingale transition condition applies from times zero to one and one to two; the displayed $t+1$ condition in the source should be read for these two transitions.

Take bank-account values $B_k=R^k$ with $R>0$, and let the stock multiply independently by $u$ or $d$ at each step, where $0<d<R<u$. Under the physical probability measure $P$, the up probability is $p\in (0,1)$; the filtration records the successive moves. These assumptions specify the standard binomial market. If $R$ lies outside the strict interval $(d,u)$, a long or short stock position financed through the bank account gives an arbitrage.

The risk-neutral probability in a binomial market is fixed by $qu+(1-q)d=R$, givingFor successor claim values $V_u,V_d$ at a node with current stock price $S$, solve the two replication equations. The current stock holding and current cash value areThe cost of this replicating portfolio in a binomial market isApply this backward option pricing recursion from any terminal contingent claim $H$, including claims depending on the whole sequence of moves. It constructs a self-financing portfolio and proves market completeness by induction on the remaining number of periods. Taking successive conditional expectations under the measure $Q$ with independent up probability $q$ gives the unique risk-neutral pricing valueAny other price would give an arbitrage by buying the cheaper of the claim and its replica and selling the dearer.

If $K$ is the number of up moves, a particular path has probabilities $p^K(1-p{)}^{n-K}$ under $P$ and $q^K(1-q{)}^{n-K}$ under $Q$. Therefore the binomial-market probability density, namely the Radon-Nikodym derivative, isThis last expression makes $Z$ a function of the terminal stock price. Summing over paths gives ${\mathbb{E}}_{P}Z=1$, and strict positivity proves equivalence of the two probability measures.

For unrestricted terminal portfolio wealth $H$, its initial replication cost is $R^{-n}{\mathbb{E}}_{Q}H$. Hence feasible wealth satisfies the state-price budget constraint ${\mathbb{E}}_{Q}H=R^n{w}_0$. For the stated exponential utility, $v^{\prime }(x)=e^{-ax}$ and $v^{\prime \prime }(x)=-a{e}^{-ax}<0$. The binomial exponential-utility terminal wealth iswhereIt satisfies the budget, and its marginal utility is $v^{\prime }(H^{\ast })=\lambda Z$ with $\lambda =\exp (-a{R}^n{w}_0-{\mathbb{E}}_Q\log Z)>0$. The concave supporting-tangent inequality givesTaking expectations under $P$ makes the last term zero by the budget. Strict concavity makes equality possible only when $H=H^{\ast }$ in every positive-probability state. The already constructed complete market supplies its replicating strategy, so this proves global optimality and uniqueness. The formula allows negative final wealth, as permitted by the unrestricted trading problem.

Let the bank account be $B_r=R^r$, where $R>0$ is the one-period riskless gross return. In the binomial market, $S_{r+1}$ is either $u{S}_r$ or $d{S}_r$, with $0<d<1<u$ and both successors having positive physical probability. The information at time $r$ consists of the first $r$ moves. A trading strategy chooses its holdings using only this information. A self-financing portfolio funds rebalancing from its current value; there is no external contribution.

Absence of arbitrage requires $d<R<u$. If $R\le d$, borrowing to buy the stock yields a nonnegative gain, strictly positive on the up branch; if $R\ge u$, shorting the stock and investing its price yields the reverse arbitrage. When $d<R<u$, define the risk-neutral probability in a binomial marketGiving each successive up move conditional probability $q$ defines an equivalent martingale measure $Q$, since every finite path has positive probability and ${\mathbb{E}}_Q[S_{r+1}\mid {\mathcal{F}}_r]=R{S}_r$.

For a contingent claim with successor values $V_u,V_d$ at a node of current stock value $s$, solve the two replication equations. The number of shares and current cash value areThen $\Delta us+RC=V_u$ and $\Delta ds+RC=V_d$, so the replicating strategy costsHold $C/B_r$ bank-account units over that period. Starting with the terminal payoff and applying these equations backwards supplies an adapted self-financing strategy replicating every path-dependent contingent claim. This proves market completeness. A different claim price would permit an arbitrage by buying the cheaper claim or replica and selling the dearer one. Iterating the backward pricing relation gives the unique risk-neutral pricing formulaThe physical up probability affects real-world frequencies but does not enter this replication price.

For a terminal payoff $f(S_n)$, write $k=n-r$. Its current price is the restriction to the available nodes of the functionIf $f$ is convex, each summand is convex in $s$ and each weight is positive; summing their defining convexity inequalities proves that $g_r$ is convex. This provides an explicit convex extension between the actual stock nodes, so “convex on the nodes” is unambiguous. If $f$ is strictly convex, each positive scaling preserves strict convexity, so $g_r$ is strictly convex as well.

For the replicating portfolio in a binomial market, the stock holding isFor $r+1<n$, let $F=g_{r+2}$. The next down and up holdings are the secant slopes of $F$ on the adjacent intervals with endpoints $d^{2}s,uds,u^{2}s$:For any convex function and $a<b<c$, its defining inequality at $b=(1-t)a+tc$ rearranges to $(F(b)-F(a))/(b-a)\le (F(c)-F(b))/(c-b)$. The inequality is strict for a strictly convex function. Applying this to the three stock values orders the two next holdings. Meanwhile the backward pricing relation gives, by subtracting its values at $us$ and $ds$,The coefficients are strictly positive and sum to one. Therefore the current share holding lies between the next two holdings:Both inequalities are strict for a strictly convex payoff. For an affine payoff the share holding is constant, explaining the required weak interpretation. These are numbers of shares, not the fraction of portfolio wealth invested in the stock.

Under a risk-neutral measure, the discounted stock must be a martingale. If $q$ is the probability of the factor $1+b$, this condition issoThe hypothesis $a<r<b$ ensures $0<q<1$, making this equivalent to the original probability measure. Since the $N$ returns are independent under $Q$, the number of up moves has a binomial distribution, and hence

Now $R=1+r=9/8$. The local risk-neutral up probabilities solve $RS=q{S}_u+(1-q)S_d$. They areThe terminal payoff of the European put option with strike $5$ is $0,0,2$ at stock prices $7,5,3$. Backward option pricing gives time-one valuesand henceThe first-period stock holding in the replicating portfolio in a binomial market isThus the hedge initially shorts $2/9$ of a share.