Backward option pricing Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24
At each node of a binomial tree, a claim with next-period values has value
where is the local risk-neutral probability in a binomial market. For an American claim, replace this continuation value by the maximum of continuation and immediate exercise value.
Under a risk-neutral measure, the discounted stock must be a martingale. If is the probability of the factor , this condition is
so
The hypothesis ensures , making this equivalent to the original probability measure. Since the returns are independent under , the number of up moves has a binomial distribution, and hence
Now . The local risk-neutral up probabilities solve . They are
The terminal payoff of the European put option with strike is at stock prices . Backward option pricing gives time-one values
and hence
The first-period stock holding in the replicating portfolio in a binomial market is
Thus the hedge initially shorts of a share.