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For a symmetric real saddle with one unstable direction and a strongly contracting transverse direction, composing the power-law local passage with a smooth global return gives this leading Poincaré return map, with $A>0$ and saddle index $\delta$. It is undefined at the stable-manifold crossing $x=0$. For $\delta >1$, small fixed points on each branch are attracting for $\mu <0$; for $\mu >0$ an attracting alternating-sign period-two orbit satisfies $s=\mu -A{s}^{\delta }$, giving gluing of two one-lobe flow cycles into one two-lobe cycle. For $\delta <1$ and small $\mu >0$, on $I=[-c\mu ,c\mu ]$, $0<c<1$, the inverse branchesmap into $I$ and contract. Infinite branch choices define an invariant Cantor set with full two-symbol dynamics. In the two-dimensional return, transverse contraction turns this mechanism into a Smale horseshoe. An attracting Lorenz set additionally requires appropriate trapping and global-return properties.

At the saddle equilibrium $x=a=\sqrt{\lambda }$, put $T=\mu +a$. The two eigenvalues and saddle index areOn the nearby saddle-loop curve, $T=12a/7+O(a^2)>0$. Therefore $0<\delta <1$, with the more explicit expansionThe positive saddle quantity $m_{-}+m_{+}=T$ makes the loop repelling. In a transverse section its leading return map has the form $s\mapsto C{s}^{\delta }$; its derivative grows without bound as $s\downarrow 0$. This is the mechanism by which a positive saddle quantity makes a nearby saddle loop repelling. It agrees with the repelling periodic orbit coming from the subcritical Hopf bifurcation, rather than predicting an attracting cycle at the collision.

The relevant saddle equilibrium is the origin, with eigenvaluesFor $\lambda <0$, they have opposite signs. Its saddle index isnear the homoclinic curve, because that curve has $\kappa >0$. Along its leading asymptote, $\delta =1-\frac{4}{5}\sqrt{-\lambda }+o(\sqrt{-\lambda })$.

A local passage near the saddle equilibrium contributes a power $s^{\delta }$ to the return map. Because $\delta <1$, its derivative becomes large as the orbit approaches the separatrix. The periodic orbits meeting the loops are therefore unstable, and their periods diverge logarithmically. On the side between the homoclinic and subcritical Hopf curves there are two unstable single-well periodic orbits, surrounding the two sink equilibria. On crossing the double-loop curve downward, they join into one unstable outer periodic orbit surrounding both wells. The attracting outer periodic orbit is not the one that collides with the saddle equilibrium: it persists across this global event.

The unstable outer periodic orbit must subsequently meet that attracting outer periodic orbit in a fold of periodic orbits. This extra curve is required to obtain the six-region diagram. One can see its position from the same energy-balance calculation. After normalizing $a_0=1$, an outer Hamiltonian contour with $H>0$ selectsAt $H=0$, $B=4/5$. The derivative of the denominator diverges positively there, while that of the numerator stays finite, so $B$ initially decreases. Rescaling at large $H$ gives $B(H)\propto \sqrt{H}$, so it eventually increases. At its minimum the stable and unstable selected periodic orbits meet. Thus the outer-cycle fold in a weakly perturbed double-well oscillator has ${\kappa }_{\mathrm{fold}}=c_f(-\lambda )+o(|\lambda |)$ with $0<c_f<4/5$; quadrature gives $c_f\simeq 0.75226$. The decreasing portion of $B(H)$ selects the unstable periodic orbit, and the increasing portion selects the stable one, since the energy drift has sign $\beta -B(H)$.

At a planar saddle equilibrium with $m_{-}<0<m_{+}$, positive saddle quantity $m_{-}+m_{+}>0$ is equivalent to saddle index $\delta <1$. The local passage followed by the regular return has leading transverse map $s\mapsto C{s}^{\delta }$, $C>0$. Its derivative diverges as $s\downarrow 0$, so a nearby periodic orbit created by the saddle-loop splitting is repelling. This local mechanism agrees with the growth of the unstable periodic orbit born at a subcritical Hopf bifurcation in the quadratic Bogdanov–Takens unfolding.