Compartmental models (epidemiology) Created 2026-10-13 Updated 2026-11-05
Compartmental models divide a biological population into states and specify transfers between them. A compartment might contain susceptible individuals, infective individuals or recovered individuals. The model must state what a compartment represents and whether its variable is a count or a fraction.
For a closed, homogeneously mixed SIR model, let and use force of infection and recovery rate . ThenEvery transfer leaves one compartment and enters another, so summing the equations gives . This conservation of population follows from the specified closed model; demographic gains, deaths or external arrivals can change the total. An SEIR model adds an exposed state to distinguish infection from the ability to transmit.
A deterministic ordinary differential equation describes continuous compartment sizes. A stochastic epidemic model instead treats infection and recovery as random events between integer states. The latter can exhibit epidemic extinction even when the corresponding deterministic trajectory initially grows.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 52 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A microparasite typically multiplies within an infected host on a much shorter time scale than between-host transmission. A useful first model classifies hosts by infection status. A macroparasite, such as an adult parasitic worm, instead requires a count of parasites per host: two infected hosts can carry very different within-host parasite burdens. These are modelling distinctions rather than a rule determined only by an organism's physical size.
For a microparasite with no lasting immunity, a homogeneous SIS model isThe basic reproduction number is , and the prevalence describes the infected-host fraction. A SIR model adds an immune class, and a SEIR model adds a latent class. Contact structure, age, susceptibility, recovery rate and infectiousness can require several such classes. Then a next-generation matrix or operator, rather than a single averaged contact rate, sets the invasion threshold. Stochastic epidemic models are relevant to early extinction and finite populations; network or spatial models represent nonuniform contact opportunities.
For a simple macroparasite burden model, let be the fraction of hosts carrying adult worms. Assume acquisitions at rate , independent adult-worm losses at rate , and a number of infective stages in a well-mixed environmental reservoir. The immigration-death worm-burden model hasThis birth-death process needs the burden distribution or its probability generating function, not just an infected/not-infected partition. Its mean satisfies . With host number fixed and each adult producing infective stages at rate , one possible environmental closure isFor this asexual, unsaturated transmission approximation, one worm's basic reproduction number is . Growth above the invasion threshold requires additional density regulation if a finite endemic burden is sought. Sex-dependent mating would change this closure.
With constant external exposure , the equilibrium burden follows a Poisson distribution with mean , giving infected-host prevalence . If exposure rates vary across hosts as a gamma distribution, the Poisson-gamma mixture gives a negative binomial distribution with mean and aggregation parameter :The same mean burden can therefore coexist with very different prevalence and highly infected subgroups. Aggregation of macroparasite burdens affects treatment coverage, burden-dependent host mortality, immunity and parasite fecundity. For sexually reproducing worms, hosts need both sexes for fertile output; a mean alone may not determine it. With independent equally likely sexes and Poisson burden, the probability of both sexes is , illustrating mating-limited macroparasite transmission and its low-burden bottleneck.
Both microparasite and macroparasite models need heterogeneous exposure and host responses. The special extra difficulty for macroparasites is translating a distributed worm burden, and possibly worm sex or developmental stage, into transmission and host harm. Conversely, complicated within-host microparasite processes can also require more than a binary host state when the simple fast-within-host approximation fails.
Stochastic epidemic model 2026-10-14
A stochastic epidemic model represents infection and recovery as random events. A continuous-time Markov chain can track integer counts, while a stochastic SIR model illustrates random fade-out and finite-population outbreak variability that a deterministic limit does not show.