A local Rayleigh-number closure estimates the thickness of a turbulent thermal boundary layer by setting
where is an order-one or geometry-dependent critical value. Combining this with Fourier's law converts the boundary-layer temperature and density differences into a heat flux law.
Let be the thickness of the thermal boundary layer immediately below , let be the kinematic viscosity, let be the thermal diffusivity, and let be the critical local Rayleigh number. The density contrast driving the boundary layer follows from the density anomaly of water:
A Local Rayleigh-number closure sets
and therefore
By Fourier's law, the upward heat flux through this layer is
where is the water's thermal conductivity. This expression applies while the quantity inside braces is positive.