Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 37 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
In the classical risk model, let be the Poisson process of claim arrivals, independent of the independent claim sizes. The reserve starts at and earns premiums continuously at rate , soHere is the ultimate ruin probability and is the survival probability. The relative safety loading is .
To derive the survival integro-differential equation, condition on the first claim time , which has the exponential distribution of rate . Immediately before that claim the available capital is . A claim leaves survival probability , since the future claim process restarts with the same independent law; a larger claim causes ruin immediately. The first-claim decomposition for survival probability is thereforePut and . Changing variables to yieldsThis representation justifies differentiation. The function is continuous: extend by zero to negative arguments, then use continuity of translations of the integrable density in to control its convolution with the bounded function . Differentiating the lower endpoint of the displayed integral gives . Since ,This deduction uses the first-arrival law rather than taking the desired differential equation as an assumption.
For , the claim law is an Erlang distribution of shape two and rate two. Its mean is . With , we have . Changing the convolution variable to givesHence the first requested specialization isLet . Differentiation under the finite integral gives and . Differentiating the preceding equation and using then givesThus the second identity isDifferentiate once more:The preceding second-derivative equation gives . Substitution cancels the undifferentiated terms and provesThis is the Erlang claim-size differential equation for survival probability with and .
Its characteristic polynomial factors as . The limit therefore makes the general bounded solutionThe supplied zero-capital survival probability is , so . We also need the initial derivative carried by the original integral equation: implies , giving . Solving gives and . Therefore the survival and ruin probabilities areThe extra initial derivative is essential: and the limit at infinity alone would leave one free parameter in the third-order equation. The result has and tends to zero. It is positive and decreasing, since for . These signs agree with its interpretation as an ultimate ruin probability.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 40 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Use the classical risk model surplus , with , and write for its ultimate survival probability. The first-claim decomposition for survival probability follows by conditioning on the first arrival time of the Poisson process. That time has exponential distribution of rate . A claim at time leaves capital if , after which the Markov property restarts the same risk model. ConsequentlyPut and change variable :The convolution is continuous since is bounded and is integrable. Differentiating proves the survival integro-differential equation
For the specified claim law, expand its probability density function as . This is an equal-weight mixture distribution of exponential distributions with rates and . In the convolution, set to obtainSince , the requested coefficients are
For the exponential-mixture differential equation for survival probability, define , and . Differentiating the integrals yieldsApply to the last equation, where . The first two equations eliminate , givingThusThe characteristic polynomial factors asThe ordinary differential equation therefore has solution .
The claim expected value is . The relative safety loading is , and the given zero-capital survival probability is . The limit at infinity sets . A third condition comes from the original survival integro-differential equation: its convolution vanishes at zero, so . Thereforewhich gives and . The final survival probability and ultimate ruin probability areBoth exponential coefficients of are positive. Hence increases from to one, and decreases from to zero. The initial slope is essential: the two stated boundary values alone do not determine all three constants of the eliminated differential equation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 31 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
First derive the survival renewal equation for a classical risk model. Before the first claim, capital rises deterministically. The first interarrival time has exponential distribution of rate , independently of the claim size. Conditioning on its time and size, and using the Markov property after that claim, givesA claim larger than the capital available then causes immediate ruin and contributes zero. There is almost surely a first claim because .
Put . Changing variables yieldsSince , this representation makes locally absolutely continuous, and differentiation gives, at least almost everywhere,Integrate from to . The integrands are nonnegative, so Tonelli theorem permits interchange in the double integral. In particularSubtracting this from , changing variables once more, and using the permitted boundary value givesThe constant is the zero-capital survival probability. Positive relative safety loading means , so it is positive. The convolution kernel is a multiple of the integrated tail distribution density and has total mass , making this a defective renewal equation.
For the individual portfolios define . Under the positive-loading convention of the question, . At zero capital, portfolio survives with probability . The independence of random variables of the entire portfolio processes makes their ultimate survival events independent. ConsequentlyThe exponential form is not needed for this zero-capital probability under positive loading; only the claim mean enters. For completeness, the company description does not separately repeat positive loading for every portfolio. If nonpositive loadings are allowed, certain ruin with nonpositive loading and finite claim variance instead givesHere the positive part sets a nonpositive factor to zero. To justify the additional case, observe capital at claim times: its independent increments are , with mean . A negative mean sends their partial sums to by the strong law of large numbers. At zero mean, these increments have finite nonzero variance. The central limit theorem gives for each fixed , so the probability of unboundedness below is at least . That event is unchanged by altering finitely many increments and hence is a tail event; the Kolmogorov zero-one law makes its probability one. Ruin therefore occurs almost surely also at zero loading.
For the merged claims, Poisson superposition of insurance portfolios gives total arrival rate . Each arrival is from portfolio with probability , independently of other arrival labels. Thus its claim-size mixture distribution has densityThe weights sum to one, so this density integrates to one. An independent transform verification uses the aggregate for one accounting period. If , then its moment-generating function isThis is precisely a compound Poisson distribution with parameter and the displayed claim-size law. The transform identity can safely be read at ; positive arguments must be below the relevant poles.
Premium incomes and initial capitals add. Therefore the merged premium rate is , the merged initial capital is zero, and its mean claim size isIts zero-capital survival probability is consequentlyUnder the question's positive-loading context this is a premium-weighted average of the individual survival probabilities, rather than their product. If arbitrary individual loadings are admitted, recompute the loading of the merged portfolio; its finite-variance mixture law gives the complete formulaAn individually nonpositive loading does not force merged ruin when aggregate premiums still exceed aggregate expected claims. The survival probability under risk pooling is at least their product because a product of numbers in is at most each factor. Pooling allows one portfolio's surplus to cover another's deficit, so merged survival does not require every original portfolio to remain solvent separately.
Ultimate ruin with exponential claims Created 2026-10-14 Updated 2026-11-05
For rate- exponential distribution claims and , the ruin integro-differential equation reduces to . Differentiate the convolution and use its equation to eliminate it. Positive relative safety loading implies as , and the zero-capital survival probability gives . These two conditions determine the displayed solution. The adjustment coefficient is .