Delta method for Bernoulli odds

ID: delta-method-for-bernoulli-odds

For independent Bernoulli random variables of fixed success probability , put and . The central limit theorem gives . Applying the delta method to the odds map , whose derivative is , gives
The ratio is undefined on the all-success event, whose probability is . Any finite extension there has the same limiting probability distribution, since that probability tends to zero. This is an asymptotic statement and does not assert an exact finite-sample variance of the unextended ratio. It is useful for uncertainty in estimated odds when the success probability stays away from one.

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