Delta method for Bernoulli odds
ID: delta-method-for-bernoulli-odds
For independent Bernoulli random variables of fixed success probability , put and . The central limit theorem gives . Applying the delta method to the odds map , whose derivative is , givesThe ratio is undefined on the all-success event, whose probability is . Any finite extension there has the same limiting probability distribution, since that probability tends to zero. This is an asymptotic statement and does not assert an exact finite-sample variance of the unextended ratio. It is useful for uncertainty in estimated odds when the success probability stays away from one.
New to topics? Read the docs here!