Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2008/ib/paper-4/19h/i/solution

Assume the explanatory variables are not all equal, so . In the Gaussian linear model, the log-likelihood is
For fixed , maximum likelihood estimation therefore minimizes the residual sum of squares. Differentiating in gives the least-squares normal equations
The first gives ; substituting it into the second gives , with . Let . Differentiating the profiled log-likelihood in gives
For the variance estimator this is the interior maximum when , which occurs almost surely under the model when .
The coefficient estimators are linear functions of the independent normal errors. In particular,
Their multivariate normal distribution has mean and covariance matrix
The fitted vector is the orthogonal projection onto the two-dimensional span of and . The residual vector is the complementary projection of the spherical normal error vector. Orthogonal normal projections are independent, and in an orthonormal basis of that complementary space its coordinates are independent . Consequently
independently of . This also gives the unbiased estimator rather than the variance MLE.
Under the null hypothesis , for the Student t test for a simple-regression intercept uses
Here is the prescribed significance level. The normal numerator divided by its true standard deviation is independent of , which proves the stated Student t-distribution. If , the two coefficients are not separately identifiable; if , this residual-variance-based test is unavailable.

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