Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2015/prelims/mathematics-iii/7/b/v/solution

Apply the central limit theorem to the independent and identically distributed random variables , whose mean and variance are and . It gives the approximate standard normal distribution
The supplied standard normal quantile leaves probability in each tail. Hence
Since , this event is equivalent to
For , equivalently integer , both denominators below are positive. Inverting the inequalities gives the approximate confidence interval
The approximation is justified for large ; positivity at by itself does not guarantee accurate coverage. This construction is a confidence interval from a relative normal pivot: the unknown scale remains inside the pivotal ratio until the inequalities are inverted. Its meaning is that the random interval covers the fixed statistical parameter with probability approximately under repeated sampling.

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