Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-statistics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2021/3/b/ii/solution

Put . As a linear combination of independent normal random variables under the posterior distribution,
The shortest 95% credible interval is
Here is the standard normal distribution cumulative distribution function. To justify shortest length, consider all intervals of a fixed length . If is this normal distribution posterior density, the interval probability has derivative with respect to . The normal distribution is symmetric and its density strictly decreases with distance from its mean, so this probability is uniquely maximized when the midpoint is . The centered interval can therefore attain 95% posterior probability with the least length. It is both an equal-tailed credible interval and a highest posterior density interval.
The target is the experiment's mean at . A posterior predictive distribution for a new noisy observation would instead have variance ; that extra observation variance does not belong in the requested interval.

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