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A best affine state estimate minimizes mean squared error among estimates $a+Cy$ formed from the available observation vector $y$. With finite second moments and invertible observation covariance matrix, it isThis follows from the orthogonal projection of centered state components onto the linear span of centered observation components. For Jointly Gaussian state and observation it equals the conditional expectation; for general laws a nonlinear estimate can have lower mean squared error.

The Kalman filter alternates a Kalman prediction step with a Kalman measurement update. It carries a state estimate forward using a state-space model, then adjusts it by the part of the new observation that was not predicted: the innovation. The Kalman gain determines the adjustment from the uncertainty of the prediction and the measurement noise. A noisy measurement should have less influence than an equally surprising precise one.

For a precise discrete-time statement, let the state and observation be vectors in real vector spaces obeying the linear state-space modelThe matrices and control inputs are known. Assume a Gaussian random vector $x_0$ with mean $m_0$ and covariance matrix $P_0$, and mutually independent centered Gaussian noises $w_t,v_t$, independent of $x_0$, with covariance matrices $Q_t,R_t$. Suppose $R_t$ is positive-definite, so the observation innovation covariance is invertible. Then the recursions below give the exact posterior mean $m_t=\mathbb{E}[x_t\mid y_1,\dots ,y_t]$ and posterior covariance matrix $P_t$, hence the full conditional multivariate normal distribution. They also minimize mean squared error. Without the Gaussian assumptions, suitable second-order assumptions still give best affine state estimates, but do not generally give an exact posterior distribution. ^[ref].

For an exact scalar example, suppose the predicted state has normal distribution $N(10,4)$ and a measurement reports $y=14$ in the same units. With measurement noise variance $R=1$, the Kalman gain is $4/(4+1)=4/5$ and the posterior distribution isWith the same prediction and observed value but measurement noise variance $R=16$, the Kalman gain becomes $1/5$ and the posterior distribution is instead $N(10.8,3.2)$. Both updates move toward the observation; the more precise measurement moves the estimate further and reduces uncertainty more.

The useful compression is exact under the stated model: the two objects $m_t,P_t$ contain everything from the past observations needed for the next update. Their size depends on the state dimension, not on the length of the observation history. This makes causal state filtering practical when observations arrive continually. It also gives Linear-quadratic-Gaussian control an estimate of the state on which to act.

Rudolf E. Kalman's 1960 paper organized linear filtering around state transitions, error covariance and recursive computation, connecting estimation with optimal regulation. Its introduction acknowledges earlier work by Wiener, Bode, Shannon and others; the useful historical claim is this particular formulation, rather than that estimation began in 1960. ^[ref].

For the state-space model $S_t=G{S}_{t-1}+w_t$, $X_t=F{S}_t+v_t$, assume independent Gaussian process noise and measurement noise of variances $W,V$, independent of the prior state and previous observations. A normal distribution for the filtered state, with mean $m$ and variance $P$, predicts mean $Gm$ and variance $R=G^{2}P+W$. Here $R$ denotes predicted state variance, rather than the observation-noise covariance notation used in the vector equations above. Gaussian conditional expectation then gives posterior mean $Gm+K(X-FGm)$ and posterior variance $RV/(F^{2}R+V)$, where the Kalman gain is $K=FR/(F^{2}R+V)$.

Mere weak white noise assumptions do not imply normal posterior distributions: independent process noise with a Rademacher distribution makes the next state a mixture of two shifted normal distributions. The Kalman filter can still describe a best affine state estimate under appropriate second-order assumptions, but that is distinct from an exact Gaussian conditional law.