Let be independent random variables, each with a Bernoulli distribution of parameter , and put . Unconditionally, the four ordered pairs each have probability . On the event , only and remain, each with conditional probability . Thus
Knowing that exactly one trial succeeded makes observing one outcome informative about the other. This violates conditional independence given , even though the original random variables are independent. Given or , both variables are constant random variables and are conditionally independent there; that does not repair the failure at , an event of positive probability.
Figure 1.
Selecting pairs with exactly one success makes independent trials dependent
. Left: four equally probable outcomes of independent fair Bernoulli trials. The selection retains exactly two pairs. Right: their conditional joint table has zero mass on the diagonal and off it. Within this selected model the conditional covariance is ; the two conditional marginal distributions remain fair. Details.
The conditional covariance here is . Both conditional variances are , so the conditional correlation coefficient is : within the selected group, . These conclusions follow from restricting a finite sample space, without positing any physical interaction between the trials.
This example and the shared-environment example establish both logical directions: independent random variables need not be conditionally independent, and conditionally independent variables need not be independent. When is represented as the joint result of two inputs in a causal directed acyclic graph, conditioning on it has the collider structure associated with collider bias. A probability calculation by itself establishes a dependence relation, not a physical causal mechanism or an intervention.
Constant random variable 2026-10-14
A constant random variable takes the same fixed real number at every outcome in its sample space. Its probability distribution puts mass one at . An almost surely constant random variable may differ on an event of probability zero, while having the same probability distribution.