Almost sure submartingale convergence theorem Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
A submartingale with converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable. The positive-part bound also bounds negative parts because . The result specializes to an -bounded martingale, and hence to every nonnegative martingale. It does not by itself give convergence in L1; uniform integrability supplies that stronger conclusion.
Coin-doubling martingale Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
For independent fair Bernoulli variables, this nonnegative martingale starts at one, doubles on every success, and becomes zero permanently on the first failure. Its expectation is always one, but it tends to zero almost surely because the probability of success forever is zero. Thus it satisfies the martingale convergence theorem while failing convergence in L1. This illustrates how rare large values obstruct uniform integrability.
Convergence in L1 2026-10-05
Convergence in L1 means that the expected value of the absolute error tends to zero. It implies convergence in probability and convergence of expected values.
For an integrable function on , average on each dyadic interval of length . The resulting step function converges to almost everywhere and in the L1 norm. If has the uniform distribution on , then , where rounds down to a dyadic endpoint. Refinement makes these conditional expectations a uniformly integrable martingale. The uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem gives almost-sure and convergence in L1 to a limit .
Since , the generated limiting sigma-algebra contains up to null sets. For every event in any finite-stage sigma-algebra, convergence in the L1 norm gives . The pi-lambda theorem extends this equality to the limiting sigma-algebra, identifying . The uniform distribution of translates the two convergence conclusions into the assertions for . Choosing a Borel representative of and assigning arbitrary values at the endpoint one makes all random variables well defined without changing either conclusion.
For a continuous function on , let be its dyadic slope martingale. Then is an absolutely continuous function if and only ifThis is exactly uniform integrability. The uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem gives convergence in L1 , while their integrated linear interpolations converge uniformly to . Hence . Conversely, if has density , its slopes are , and the uniform integrability of conditional expectations proves the criterion. The dyadic tail integral is also the sum of the absolute endpoint increments in cells whose slope is at least in magnitude.
Fair-coin doubling martingale 2026-10-05
For fair independent and identically distributed random variables with the Bernoulli distribution, is a nonnegative martingale. It has almost sure convergence to zero but , so it lacks convergence in L1.
L1 contraction of conditional expectation 2026-10-05
For an integrable random variable , the conditional expectation satisfies almost surely. Taking expected values gives the L1 contraction of conditional expectation. Applying it to shows that convergence in L1 is preserved by conditional expectation with respect to any fixed sigma-algebra.
L1 convergence implies uniform integrability 2026-10-05
For integrable random variables ,Apply this with and to prove that convergence in L1 implies uniform integrability; control finitely many early terms separately.
Lp martingale convergence theorem Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
A martingale satisfying , for , has almost sure convergence and convergence in Lp to a limit . Also . The Doob Lp maximal inequality makes integrable to the power ; the martingale convergence theorem gives the almost-sure limit, and the dominated convergence theorem gives convergence in the Lp norm. Boundedness in alone does not imply convergence in L1.
Nonnegative martingale Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
A nonnegative martingale takes nonnegative values almost surely at each time. In discrete time its expectations are constant, so it is bounded in and the martingale convergence theorem gives a finite integrable almost sure limit. Its expectations need not converge to the expectation of that limit; uniform integrability is needed for convergence in L1.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 29 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A convenient precise version is the almost sure submartingale convergence theorem: if is a real submartingale and , then converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable. In particular the martingale convergence theorem applies to any martingale with . It asserts neither convergence in L1 nor preservation of the initial expected value without additional uniform integrability.
Here is a proof including the crossing estimate. Fix real , and let count completed upcrossings by time . Use a predictable indicator which holds one unit during each crossing attempt: enter when , exit when . Witheach completed trade gains at least , while the possible unfinished trade loses no more than . Hence . The submartingale property and give : the complementary predictable gains have nonnegative expected value. ThereforeThe right side is uniformly bounded, since . By the monotone convergence theorem, every rational interval has finitely many upcrossings almost surely. A real sequence whose lower and upper limits differ crosses some rational interval infinitely often, so the countable intersection of these events gives an extended-real limit. Furthermoreso . The Fatou lemma makes the limit finite and integrable, completing the proof. Applying this theorem to gives the almost sure supermartingale convergence theorem for nonnegative supermartingales.
For the given adapted multiplicative drift, putThe next denominator is -measurable, and makes integrable. ThusThe nonnegative supermartingale has a finite almost sure convergence limit . On the probability-one event where the specified series is finite,Consequently and the multiplicative correction for summable adapted drift givesThe argument does not require a finite expected value for the infinite product or for the total drift.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 34 3 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A filtration on a probability space is an increasing sequence of sigma-algebras contained in : . A real stochastic process is a martingale for this filtration if is -measurable, , andThe first condition is adaptedness; the tower property of conditional expectation then gives whenever .
The almost-sure martingale convergence theorem states that if a real martingale satisfies , then some integrable random variable satisfies almost surely. The more general almost sure submartingale convergence theorem needs only for a submartingale. In particular, a nonnegative martingale converges to a finite integrable limit almost surely, because its expected value is constant. Mere boundedness in the L1 norm does not imply convergence in L1. The stronger uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem gives both almost-sure convergence and convergence in L1 when the martingale is uniformly integrable.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 34 4 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The stopped martingale is a martingale. For completeness, the bounded-time stopping rule follows directly fromwhose conditional expectation given is zero. Integrability at each fixed follows by expressing the stopped value as a finite sum of the integrable restricted to disjoint events. Therefore .
The crucial bound is deterministic. Since and ,A bounded family is uniformly integrable: for all its quantities vanish. Part (c) gives almost surely, and then . HenceThe general result for passing to expectations is the dominated convergence theorem: almost-sure convergence under one integrable bound implies convergence in L1 and convergence of expectations. Applying it with the bound givesThis is the exponential first-passage transform for an upward skip-free random walk; it avoids an unjustified use of optional stopping at an unbounded stopping time.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 34 5 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Values at the endpoint one do not affect any of the conclusions, since . Set to define each random variable everywhere, and choose a Borel measurable function agreeing with almost everywhere if necessary. These choices leave all integrals and almost-sure assertions unchanged.
Every dyadic interval at level lies in a dyadic interval at level . Equivalently, is a measurable function of , so : these sigma-algebras form a filtration. Since the uniform distribution of gives , the conditional expectations are integrable and adapted. The tower property of conditional expectation givesThus is a martingale, and part (a) proves that it is uniformly integrable.
For , the event is an atom of a sigma-algebra , with probability . The value of the conditional expectation there is thereforeConsequently This also shows directly that .
By the uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem, there is an integrable such that almost surely and in the L1 norm. To identify this limit, put . Since away from the harmless endpoint, , and is -measurable. Conversely every is a measurable function of . Thus , and both and have -measurable versions.
For , the defining property of conditional expectation gives whenever . Passing to the limit in the L1 norm yieldsThe increasing union is an algebra of sets generating . The class of events for which this integral identity holds is a Dynkin system, so the pi-lambda theorem extends the identity to every . Since both random variables are measurable there, uniqueness of conditional expectation gives almost surely. We have proved that the dyadic conditional averages recover integrable functions:because a probability-one assertion for is a full-Lebesgue measure assertion for . Likewise, the uniform distribution of turns convergence in L1 intoNo pointwise continuity of is required.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 31 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For , let be the number of completed upcrossings by the observations : buy when the value is at most , sell at the first subsequent value at least , and repeat. With , one form of the Doob upcrossing inequality for a martingale isFor completeness, hold either zero or one unit according to this rule. The holding at each step is measurable before the next martingale increment, so the total gain has expected value zero. Completed trades earn at least each; an unfinished trade loses at most . Thus , proving the inequality.
Suppose . For each rational pair the inequality and monotone convergence giveEvery rational interval therefore has only finitely many upcrossings, simultaneously outside a countable union of null sets. If , there is a rational interval strictly between them and infinitely many upcrossings, a contradiction. Thus the limit exists in the extended real line almost surely. Fatou's lemma now givesThe limit is finite almost surely and integrable. This proves the martingale convergence theorem rather than using it as the deduction.
The exact extra condition for convergence in L1 is uniform integrability:To see sufficiency, first discard the tails of uniformly and the tail of the integrable . On the set where both absolute values are at most , their difference is bounded by and tends to zero almost surely; dominated convergence finishes the proof. Conversely, if in , thenMake the first term uniformly small for all sufficiently large , then control the finitely many remaining integrable variables by increasing . Hence uniform integrability is necessary too. In this case the conditional expectation identity follows by taking the limit in for .
The coin-doubling martingale shows why an bound is not enough. Let be independent fair coin indicators and setConditional on the first coins, the next value is either or zero with equal probabilities, so this is a nonnegative martingale. Its expected value is always , while a first failure occurs almost surely, giving almost surely. Yet for every . Indeed, whenever , its tail expected value above is still . Thus convergence in L1 fails because uniform integrability fails.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 33 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Define the stopped martingaleIt is nonnegative: before the first visit to , the nearest-neighbour random walk is at most , and afterwards the stopped position is . Each is integrable, with . MoreoverThe indicator is -measurable and the increment has conditional mean zero, so is a martingale with .
Part (a) shows almost surely, so every such path eventually has . Thus almost surely. But for every , so there is no convergence in L1. Any possible L1 convergence limit would agree with the almost sure limit. This is a nonnegative martingale with almost sure convergence but no convergence in L1, and hence it is not uniformly integrable.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 24 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The martingale convergence theorem says that a discrete-time martingale satisfyinghas an almost sure convergence limit , finite almost surely and in . The theorem asserts that the limit is integrable; it does not assert convergence in L1. More generally, the almost sure submartingale convergence theorem applies to a submartingale with . Uniform integrability is the additional condition that upgrades a martingale's convergence to convergence in L1.
For the requested distinction, let be independent fair Bernoulli variables and use their natural filtration. The coin-doubling martingaleis a nonnegative martingale: conditionally on , the next factor is with mean one, so . Also for every , giving the required uniform bound. The probability that all the Bernoulli variables equal one is . Therefore a zero is eventually encountered almost surely, after which stays zero. ThusThere can be no other limit, since convergence in L1 implies convergence in probability, whose limit must agree with the almost sure limit. This martingale satisfies the almost sure theorem but does not converge in .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 26 2 4 Solution 2026-10-06
The bounded optional stopping theorem gives . Decompose the difference from the terminal value:ConsequentlyThe first term tends to zero by hypothesis. The second tends to zero by the dominated convergence theorem, because is integrable and is finite with probability one. Thus the stopped martingale converges to with convergence in L1, which permits passage of expectations to the limit:The explicit tail condition supplies exactly the missing control for an unbounded stopping time.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 29 1 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write . For , let be the upcrossing count obtained by successively buying at an observation at or below and selling at an observation at or above , with the first purchase allowed at time zero. The Doob upcrossings lemma for an integrable discrete-time martingale isThe weaker last bound is also the usual Doob upcrossing inequality.
To prove it, hold one unit between each purchase and sale, and zero units otherwise. If records the holding over , the decision is -measurable, with . The resulting martingale transform has gainEach completed upcrossing earns at least . An unfinished holding loses at most . If a purchase occurs at zero, its price is , giving the additional discount , whether that holding has been sold or remains open. If no purchase occurs at zero, this extra term is zero. Therefore, path by path,Taking expectations proves the bound.
The martingale convergence theorem, stated without proof, says that a discrete-time martingale satisfying converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable . In particular every nonnegative martingale converges almost surely to a finite limit. Under uniform integrability, the uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem additionally gives convergence in L1 and .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 201 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The almost sure submartingale convergence theorem says that if a submartingale satisfiesthen there is an integrable random variable such thatIndeed the positive-part bound also bounds the negative parts, since ; the theorem gives a finite limit. In particular, the martingale convergence theorem applies to any martingale with .
For a nonnegative martingale, supplies this bound automatically. Its limit obeys by the Fatou lemma. Almost sure convergence alone need not preserve the expectation or give convergence in L1. Uniform integrability is the additional condition that supplies convergence in L1 and the identity .