Likelihood function Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
For a fixed observed sample , a likelihood function iswhere is the probability mass function or probability density function of the observations under the statistical parameter . All densities must be defined relative to the same parameter-independent dominating measure. The sample is fixed; the parameter is the function's argument. With independent and identically distributed random variables, the joint mass or density factors as . This definition and the distinction between sampling probability and parameter uncertainty are explained in MIT 18.05, Reading 10b, sections 3 and 3.2.
For an observed ordered sequence of ten independent Bernoulli trials containing eight successes and two failures, each success contributes and each failure contributes , givingIf the observation is instead only the total count , its binomial distribution probability mass function sums over the possible ordered sequences:The raw heights differ: at they are approximately and . Their maximum-likelihood estimates are identical. More generally, multiplication by any finite positive constant independent of leaves the maximizing parameter values and all likelihood ratios unchanged. Multiplication by a parameter-dependent factor can change the MLE; dropping such a factor is not justified. Relative likelihood height sets the peak to one, without making the area under the curve one.
Normalization of is over possible data values for each fixed parameter. It imposes no requirement that . For example, the ordered Bernoulli trials likelihood above hasIts integral is not one, and its values are not posterior probabilities for . When the Bayesian posterior is defined, Bayes' theorem multiplies the likelihood by a prior density and normalizes that product. Choosing to normalize a likelihood function alone is an additional choice, such as using a uniform prior in those parameter coordinates, rather than part of the definition of likelihood.
For observations with a probability density function, the probability of an exact sample point is zero. If a scalar density is continuous at the observed value , thenThus the density compares probabilities of small, equal observation intervals at different parameter values; it is not itself the probability of that exact real number. The equal-width factor is independent of the parameter. This gives visual intuition for density likelihoods, as in MIT 18.05, Reading 10b, section 4. The normal distribution example in maximum-likelihood estimator makes the comparison explicit. If only rounded intervals are recorded, their integrated probabilities give the exact observation likelihood; using midpoint densities is an approximation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 11 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
We construct the density and singular part, rather than assuming the desired Lebesgue decomposition theorem. Put , a finite dominating measure, and use the real Hilbert space . The linear functionalis well defined on its equivalence classes, since a -null set is -null. The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality and giveBy the Riesz representation theorem, there is with . Indicators of all measurable sets belong to this Hilbert space, soThe nonnegativity of these two measures forces almost everywhere. For instance, if , its -measure would be negative; the analogous sets contradict positivity of . Their countable union excludes every violation. Modify on its measurable -null exceptional set so that these inequalities hold everywhere. This is the Hilbert-space construction of dominated measure densities.
DefineThen , is a nonnegative measurable function, and . The identity for integration against follows first for indicators, then for nonnegative simple functions and finally for all nonnegative functions by the monotone convergence theorem. Applying it to givesIn particular , so . Additivity on the disjoint measurable sets and now givesThis is the Lebesgue decomposition from a sum-measure density: the first measure has a density, and the second is concentrated on a -null set, so is mutually singular with .
The absolute continuity of measures condition means that implies for every . If this holds, then , eliminating the singular part above. Conversely, a measure of the form vanishes on every -null set. ThereforeThus absolute continuity is exactly the absence of the singular part in this construction.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 5 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Construct the densities using the Riesz representation theorem for a Hilbert space, rather than assuming the measure-decomposition conclusion. Put , a finite dominating measure, and work in the real L2 space . The linear functionalis well-defined on its equivalence classes because . By the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality,Thus the Riesz representation theorem supplies such that . Since is finite, is also integrable. Testing givesThe first identity and nonnegativity of rule out a positive-measure set where ; for example, test . The second identity and nonnegativity of similarly rule out . Modify a measurable representative on a -null set so that everywhere. This is the Hilbert-space construction of dominated measure densities.
SetThen and . The indicator identities for extend to integrals of nonnegative measurable functions by approximation with simple functions and the monotone convergence theorem. Consequently,and, for every ,HenceThis proves Lebesgue decomposition from a sum-measure density. The argument includes the cases of zero measures; there is no division on , where the denominator vanishes.
Absolute continuity of measures, written , means that implies for every . If , then in the construction above, so the singular term vanishes. Conversely, if with a nonnegative integrable , that integral is zero on every -null set. ThusThis is the finite-measure Radon-Nikodym theorem as a consequence of the proved construction.
Finally restrict the base measure to the sub-sigma-algebra . For a real , write , with both parts nonnegative and integrable. On define finite positive measuresThey are absolutely continuous with respect to . The result just proved gives nonnegative, -measurable densities satisfyingSet . Since , this is in , and subtraction givesFor complex , apply the real construction separately to its real and imaginary parts and combine the two results. This is conditional expectation from finite-measure densities. The resulting conditional expectation is unique almost everywhere: for two real versions, their difference has integral zero on its positive and negative level sets in , forcing it to vanish; apply this to both components in the complex case. No probability normalization of is required.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 iii Paper 348 5 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
To attain this bound, use the dominating measure and Radon-Nikodym derivatives , . Define the common measure and residual mass bySince , the positive and negative parts have equal mass. Taking givesIf , then and the diagonal transport plan has zero cost. If , put , and defineThe residual measures each have mass , so the marginal distributions of are and , and its total mass is . They are mutually singular measures, concentrated respectively on and . Their product measure therefore gives no mass to , and . This is a maximal coupling.
In the paper's convention for the zero-mass signed measure , the answer isThe repository's total variation distance uses the supremum itself. The paper's formula agrees with the usual total variation norm when has total mass zero, as here; it is not the usual norm for an arbitrary positive measure. All suprema above are over Borel sets.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 iii Paper 326 3 1 b Solution 2026-09-29
The total variation distance isIf both measures have densities with respect to a common dominating measure, then .