Let have the fair Bernoulli distribution and set for every . Each coordinate has the same fair probability distribution as in the independent model, but the coordinates are dependent: , whereas the product of the marginal probabilities is . Every future sigma-algebra equals , so the tail sigma-algebra also equals .
The tail event of infinitely many heads is now exactly , with probability . For the finite-window events in infinitely many heads as a tail event,
The sample space can even be the same full Cartesian product in both models: the dependent probability measure assigns mass to each of the all-zero and all-one sequences. Then is the same literal tail event in both models. Only the probability measure and its independence properties change.
Figure 1.
More independent trials increase the chance of a head; repeated copies of one coin do not
. Exact constructed probabilities for at least one head in a window of coordinates. The independent curve is and tends to one; the shared-coin curve stays at . These are calculations from the two specified probability measures, not measurements or simulated frequencies. Details.
For mutually independent random variables, every tail event has . Identical probability distributions are unnecessary. The tail sigma-algebra is trivial in probability: its events have probability zero or one, though it can contain nonempty proper sets.[ref]
For a proof, set and . Independence extended from generating pi-systems makes independent of , hence of each tail event . The increasing union is a generating pi-system for . For fixed , the events satisfying form a Dynkin system. The pi-lambda theorem extends this equality to all . Taking gives
Thus is independent of itself, forcing the two stated values.[ref]
The useful feature is the absence of intermediate probabilities for infinite properties that ignore every finite prefix. It reduces some calculations to showing that a tail event has positive probability, or that its complement does. The theorem supplies no finite observation deadline, and an extra argument such as the calculation in infinitely many heads as a tail event is needed to decide which value occurs.