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For fixed component masses, total mass $M=M_1+M_2$ and reduced mass $\mu =M_1{M}_2/M$, in the weak-field slow-motion circular orbits, $E=-GM\mu /(2a)$ and $J=\mu \sqrt{GMa}$ obey $dE/dJ=\Omega$. The gravitational-wave energy and angular-momentum balance makes the secular loss tangent to this circular family. Substituting $v^2=GM/a$ into the instantaneous quadrupole luminosity of a Kepler binary and differentiating $E$ gives the displayed inspiral equation. Integration givesThe orbit is quasicircular, with small radial drift. The formal coalescence time is not a valid extension of the weak-field point-mass model into the final strong-field or stellar-contact phase.

Set $\mathbf{r}={\mathbf{x}}_1-{\mathbf{x}}_2$, $M=M_1+M_2$ and $\mu =M_1{M}_2/M$, the reduced mass. Newton's law of universal gravitation gives ${\ddot{\mathbf{x}}}_1=-G{M}_2\mathbf{r}/r^3$ and ${\ddot{\mathbf{x}}}_2=G{M}_1\mathbf{r}/r^3$. Subtraction establishesFor fixed masses, the orbital energy and angular momentum areTaking derivatives gives $\dot{E}=\mu \mathbf{v}\cdot (\ddot{\mathbf{r}}+GM\mathbf{r}/r^3)=0$ and $\dot{\mathbf{J}}=\mu \mathbf{r}\times \ddot{\mathbf{r}}=0$. These are conservation of energy and conservation of angular momentum in the unperturbed Kepler orbit. To see directly that the orbital eccentricity is fixed, put $\mathbf{h}=\mathbf{r}\times \mathbf{v}$ and $\mathbf{n}=\mathbf{r}/r$. The eccentricity vector isSince $\dot{\mathbf{h}}=0$, the cross product identity $\mathbf{r}\times (\mathbf{r}\times \mathbf{v})=\mathbf{r}(\mathbf{r}\cdot \mathbf{v})-r^2\mathbf{v}$ gives $\ddot{\mathbf{r}}\times \mathbf{h}=GM\dot{\mathbf{n}}$, so $\dot{\mathbf{e}}=0$. Its magnitude $e$ is the orbital eccentricity. Equivalently,Thus the semi-major axis and orbital eccentricity of a bound noncollision Kepler orbit are constant, including $e=0$.

Take the centre of mass as origin. The two positions are ${\mathbf{x}}_1=(M_2/M)\mathbf{r}$ and ${\mathbf{x}}_2=-(M_1/M)\mathbf{r}$. For $x\gg r$, a Taylor expansion givesThe mass dipole vanishes because ${\sum }_A{M}_A{\mathbf{x}}_A=0$, and the second mass moment tensor is ${\sum }_A{M}_A{x}_{Ai}{x}_{Aj}=\mu r_i{r}_j$. The gravitational quadrupole potential of a point-mass binary is consequentlyBoth printed tensors are trace-free. Contracting them with the Kronecker delta summed over three spatial dimensions givesThis proves the requested expression through second order. In particular the printed convention is $q_{ij}=\frac{3}{2}{Q}_{ij}$, where $Q_{ij}=\mu (r_i{r}_j-r^2{\delta }_{ij}/3)$ is the standard mass quadrupole moment; the radiation coefficient must be adjusted accordingly. No mass dipole term may be retained in centre of mass coordinates.

To evaluate the quadrupole formula without assuming a circular orbit, put $k=GM$, $u=\dot{r}=\mathbf{n}\cdot \mathbf{v}$ and ${\mathbf{v}}_{\perp }=\mathbf{v}-u\mathbf{n}$. Differentiating the gravitational acceleration gives the kinematic jerkFor $S_{ij}=r_i{r}_j$, the product rule then givesInserting these into the printed mass quadrupole moment convention yieldsThe two tensors in brackets are orthogonal in their tensor contraction, because $\mathbf{n}\cdot {\mathbf{v}}_{\perp }=0$. Their squared norms are $6$ and $2v_{\perp }^2$, respectively. HenceThe instantaneous quadrupole luminosity of a Kepler binary is thereforeThe radial derivative $\dot{r}$ is not the vector speed. The bracket equals $v_{\perp }^2+u^2/12$, so the radiated luminosity is nonnegative for every instantaneous velocity.

For a slowly evolving circular orbit, there is no preferred orbital phase at which to excite a persistent eccentricity vector. More precisely, the rotating mass quadrupole moment emits at twice the orbital frequency, with angular harmonic number two; its gravitational-wave energy and angular-momentum balance is $\dot{E}=\Omega \dot{J}$. The circular Kepler orbit sequence has $J=\mu \sqrt{GMa}$ and $dE/dJ=\Omega$, so this loss is tangent to the sequence. At leading adiabatic order it preserves zero secular orbital eccentricity. This is a circular gravitational-wave inspiral, with a small radial drift rather than an exactly fixed-radius Newtonian circle. The energy flux alone would not establish circularity without this symmetry and angular momentum balance.

To leading radiation order use $r=a$, $u=0$ and ${\mathbf{v}}^2=GM/a$ in the loss formula. Combining it with $E=-GM\mu /(2a)$ givesKeeping the fixed masses and leading quadrupole formula, integration givesThis formal coalescence time displays the strong $a_0^4$ dependence: gravitational-wave emission from a binary system matters far more for close binary stars than for wide ones. The orbital period decreases as $a^{3/2}$ and the gravitational-wave frequency increases, producing a chirp. A detached binary can be driven into Roche-lobe overflow; further evolution then depends on mass-transfer stability. A sufficiently close compact pair may merge. The weak-field, slow-motion, point-mass approximation ceases to apply before literal $a=0$; finite stellar radii or strong relativistic effects determine the final interaction.