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Work locally in $z$ where $u\ne 0$, and take the matrix entries literally as they appear in the original PDF. At fixed $z$, abbreviateThen $A=D{\lambda }^2+\left(\begin{array}{cc}0& U\\ V& 0\end{array}\right)\lambda +\left(\begin{array}{cc}d& P\\ R& -d\end{array}\right)$. DefineThe literal coefficients giveIn general neither $h=z/2$ nor $\theta =0$ is valid for the printed system.

The normalized formal fundamental matrix iswith a chosen logarithm branch. In particular the diagonal normal form has ${\Lambda }_1=0$, ${\Lambda }_2=hD$, ${\Lambda }_3=\theta D$. Its first two prefactor coefficients areThese formulas include the diagonal terms required by the derivative of the prefactor. Setting every diagonal prefactor coefficient to zero while retaining only the displayed exponent would generally fail the differential equation.

Here is the coefficient calculation and the full recursion. Write $A_1=\left(\begin{array}{cc}0& U\\ V& 0\end{array}\right)$, $A_2=\left(\begin{array}{cc}d& P\\ R& -d\end{array}\right)$ and $G_0=I$, with negative-index $G_j=0$. Substitution into the gauge transformation of a linear differential system gives, for $m\ge 1$,At $m=1$, the commutator determines $(G_1{)}_{12}=-U/2$, $(G_1{)}_{21}=V/2$ and the absence of a linear diagonal term. The diagonal part at $m=2$ gives $h=d+UV/2$. The next diagonal part gives $\theta =(UR+VP)/2$. At $m=4$ diagonal solvability gives $-\rho =PR/2-UV(d+h)/4$; the next order fixes the two diagonal entries of $G_2$ above. The off-diagonal entries are fixed at each stage because $[D,X{]}_{12}=2X_{12}$ and $[D,X{]}_{21}=-2X_{21}$. Later diagonal solvability fixes the remaining normalization coefficients. Thus this is a complete formal solution, not a convergence assertion. It is the formal cubic-exponential two-by-two system expansion. The printed hint's second prefactor term must have denominator ${\lambda }^2$, and the remainder after the $1/\lambda$ term of the diagonal expansion must start at $1/{\lambda }^2$.

Now impose an isomonodromic deformation in the full irregular sense: its Stokes matrices and formal exponent are fixed in $z$, with the leading formal normalization fixed. Sectorial matrices satisfy $Y_{j+1}=Y_j{C}_j$ with $(C_j{)}_z=0$, so $B_j=(Y_j{)}_z{Y}_j^{-1}$ is the same on overlaps. Since the spectral system has no finite singularities, its fundamental matrix and inverse are entire in $\lambda$, making $B$ entire. Differentiating the formal expression, using ${\theta }_z=0$, givesBut $[G_1,D]=A_1$. The sectorial cover makes this a global growth bound, so Liouville's theorem applied to $B-h_z(\lambda D+A_1)$ gives the literal consequenceAn arbitrary parameter dependence of $u,w$ need not be isomonodromic; this analytic argument presupposes the stated constancy of generalized monodromy data.

The requested matrix would require $h_z=1/2$ from its diagonal and upper entry, and then its lower entry would require $(z-2)w=0$. On an open deformation domain this forces $w\equiv 0$. Thus that requested expression is not the general deformation matrix for the printed coefficients.

There is a consistent nearby correction: replace the lower entry of $A_1$ by $-2w/u$. Then $V=-2w/u$, so $h=z/2$ and $\theta =0$, and the same derivation proves exactlyFor this corrected system use the same prefactor formulas with $V=-2w/u$: $\rho =-w(w+z)/2-w(u^{\prime }/u{)}^2$ and both diagonal entries of $G_2$ are ${\rho }^2/2+w/4$. Compatibility determines the allowed $u,w$ in the next solution. This correction is stated explicitly rather than silently substituting it for the original PDF.

For an invertible fundamental matrix, differentiating $Y_{\lambda }=AY$ in $z$ and $Y_z=BY$ in $\lambda$ gives $Y_{\lambda z}=(A_z+AB)Y$ and $Y_{z\lambda }=(B_{\lambda }+BA)Y$. Thus the necessary and sufficient compatibility identity isHere both derivatives must use the actual deformation variable $z$; the printed $t$ has not been defined. The isomonodromic deformation identity can be checked as a polynomial in $\lambda$, without assuming the conclusion.

First retain the coefficients actually printed in the PDF. Write $p=u^{\prime }$, $d=w+z/2$, and introduce the two residualsDirect matrix multiplication and differentiation giveFor example, the quadratic lower entry is the difference between $[D,B_0{]}_{21}=2w/u$ and the contribution $(A_1{)}_{21}=-zw/u$; it does not cancel. The constant lower entry follows by differentiating $2u^{\prime }w/u^2$ and collecting it as $2wH/u^2+2u^{\prime }K/u^2$. These entries also provide independent checks of the two most important cancellations.

Work on an open connected deformation domain where $u\ne 0$, as the matrices require. The quadratic entry forces $(2-z)w=0$ throughout the domain, hence $w\equiv 0$ by continuity, including a possible point $z=2$. All remaining entries then vanish exactly when $u^{\prime \prime }+(z/2)u=0$. Thus the literal answer isThis is a rescaled Airy function equation: with $\xi =-2^{-1/3}z$, the equation is $u_{\xi \xi }-\xi u=0$, so $u=c_1\mathrm{Ai}(\xi )+c_2\mathrm{Bi}(\xi )$ on a domain avoiding its zeros. In particular, choose the local solution with $u(1)=u^{\prime }(1)=1$ and $w=0$. It gives compatible matrices but violates the printed $w=u^{\prime }$. This proves that the requested assertion is false for the original coefficients, independently of the undefined $t/z$ in the printed differential equation.

For completeness, use the explicitly corrected lower coefficient $(A_1{)}_{21}=-2w/u$ from the preceding solution. The same multiplication gives the much simpler residualConsequently compatibility is equivalent to $K=H=0$. The first equation integrates without dividing by $w$:The constant of integration $C$ therefore satisfies $w=C{u}^2$, and the second equation becomesConversely these two equations give $K=H=0$, and substitution makes every residual entry vanish, proving sufficiency as well as necessity. This is the quadratic spectral Lax pair for zero-parameter Painlevé II. For $C\ne 0$, choose constants $b,a$ with $b^3=-2$ and $C{a}^2{b}^2=-2$, set $z=bx$, $u=aq(x)$, and obtain $q^{\prime \prime }=2q^3+xq$, the zero-parameter Painlevé II equation. For $C=0$ it reduces to the Airy function equation. Even with this correction, the conclusions are $w=C{u}^2$ and the coefficient $z/2$, rather than the incompatible expressions printed in the question.

Let $A$ have diagonal entries $\pm ({\lambda }^2+w+z/2)$ and off-diagonal entries $u\lambda +u^{\prime }$ and $-2w\lambda /u+2u^{\prime }w/u^2$. Let $B$ have diagonal entries $\pm \lambda /2$ and off-diagonal entries $u/2,-w/u$. Substitution into the isomonodromic deformation compatibility identity gives the displayed equations on domains with $u\ne 0$. Thus $(w/u^2{)}^{\prime }=0$, so $w=C{u}^2$ and $u^{\prime \prime }+C{u}^3+zu/2=0$, a rescaled zero-parameter Painlevé II equation when $C\ne 0$. The leading coefficient $-2w/u$ is required by cancellation of the quadratic spectral terms.