Use and . Independence and zero means imply , so the partial sums form a square-integrable martingale. More explicitly,
Thus is a nonnegative submartingale. The Doob maximal inequality at threshold now proves the Kolmogorov maximal inequality:
Finally, expanding the terminal square and using independence and the zero means gives . Identical distributions are not required.
Strong law of large numbers Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be real independent and identically distributed random variables with , and let be their expected value. Their sample mean satisfies
This is almost sure convergence: with probability one, an entire infinite sequence of observations has averages that eventually stay within every prescribed positive tolerance of . The variance need not be finite. The strong law of large numbers implies the weak law of large numbers, which asserts convergence in probability at each increasing sample size.
For independent trials with a Bernoulli distribution of parameter , is one for success and zero for failure. Then is the observed success proportion, and the strong law of large numbers says almost surely. This turns a theoretical probability into a quantity one can estimate by repetition. It does not say that each new trial improves the estimate: a long string of failures can move the proportion away from before later observations bring it back.
Figure 1.
Bernoulli averages approach their mean: sample paths and exact error probabilities
. The left panel shows four reproducibly simulated sequences of independent Bernoulli trials with success probability . The right panel calculates from the exact binomial distribution and compares it with the bound from the Chebyshev inequality. Small irregularities reflect integer-valued counts. The paths illustrate almost sure convergence; a finite simulation cannot prove it. Details.
The strong law of large numbers gives the limiting location of the sample mean, while the central limit theorem describes its fluctuations when the variance is finite and positive. The two assertions can hold together:
The first error shrinks to zero; the second has been enlarged enough to retain a nontrivial probability distribution. The second assertion is convergence in distribution, not a claim that the enlarged error along one sequence approaches a particular normal random variable.
The assumptions make a practical difference. If every observation repeats the same nonconstant Bernoulli random variable, , then for all : identical probability distributions alone do not make repeated observations informative. For independent observations with a Standard Cauchy distribution, the Cauchy sample mean has an unchanged distribution, so it does not concentrate around a constant. Its expected value is undefined, and ; neither example contradicts the stated strong law of large numbers.
A brief proof outline in the case of finite variance uses the Kolmogorov maximal inequality for the centered partial sums. The probability that their maximum up to exceeds is at most . These bounds are summable, so the Borel-Cantelli lemma controls all sufficiently large such blocks and hence every intermediate sample size. The general case requires truncation to control large observations; the argument using finite variance alone does not prove that full version.