Infinitely many heads as a tail event 2026-10-14
On , the event of infinitely many heads isIt says that after every index there is another head. For each , the same intersection can start at , so ; therefore is a tail event. This verifies measurability directly using countable unions and intersections.
A finite prefix admits both infinitely many heads and only finitely many heads
. The two illustrated extensions have the same initial observations. An alternating continuation belongs to the tail event of infinitely many heads; an all-tails continuation does not. Changing the highlighted finite prefix cannot change that infinite property, but it can change the exact first-head time. Details.Assume now that the coordinates are fair independent Bernoulli trials. For fixed , let be the event of at least one head among . Its complement requires tails, soThe last equality follows from continuity of probability. Now , a countable intersection of almost sure events, and hence . This determines which of the two possibilities in Kolmogorov's zero–one law occurs. Equivalently, the Borel-Cantelli second lemma applies to the independent events .
Nevertheless, no finite prefix certifies membership in : every finite record can be extended by all tails or by alternating heads and tails. Under the fair independent model, conditioning on any exact finite prefix leaves , since is independent of the initial sigma-algebra. The excluded all-tails continuation has probability zero, but remains a possible member of the sample space. Logical determination by a finite record and a conclusion holding almost surely are different statements.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 ii Paper 2 25J b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Convergence in probability supplies a subsequence converging almost surely to : choose it so , then apply the first Borel-Cantelli lemma. For each fixed , the tail of this subsequence lies in , and its almost sure limit is . Thus has a version measurable with respect to the completed tail sigma-field of the independent sequence.
By Kolmogorov's zero–one law, every event in that tail sigma-field has probability zero or one. Consequently for every rational . Since is a finite real random variable, its distribution function has limits zero and one at the two infinities; monotonicity then identifies a single threshold with . Hence is almost surely constant. Completion only adds null events and does not alter the zero-one conclusion.
The tail sigma-algebra of this sequence isFor each fixed , the preceding event equality givesEvery event on the right is determined by coordinates with index at least . Therefore for every , and . The random variables are independent, so Kolmogorov's zero–one law applies: every tail event has probability zero or one. Hence .
The role of independence can also be seen directly. A tail event is independent of each finite initial sigma-algebra . The Monotone class theorem extends this independence to ; since itself lies there, it is independent of itself. Thus .[ref]
Probability: Theory and Examples (fifth edition) by Rick Durrett. §2.5, Theorem 2.5.3, printed pp. 81–82: the tail sigma-field zero–one law
Tail measurability of limits of sample averages Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be a sequence of finite real random variables, and write for its sample mean. For fixed and , put . Then, at each outcome,Consequently . The right-hand limit superior is a measurable function of for every , so the extended-real random variable is measurable with respect to the tail sigma-algebra. The same holds for the limit inferior. Thus the event of convergence to a finite limit of a sequence, and the event for any specified real , are tail events.
For a worked deterministic example, let alternate , and replace its first three entries by . For every the two sample means differ by exactly , so both converge to . Finite edits can change small-sample answers while preserving the infinite limit of a sequence.
Under independence, Kolmogorov's zero–one law makes each specified convergence event have probability zero or one. It does not select which value occurs. If a finite random variable measurable with respect to the tail sigma-algebra exists, the events for rational each have probability zero or one; continuity of probability and their nesting force to be constant almost surely. For fair independent Bernoulli trials, the strong law of large numbers establishes almost surely; the zero–one conclusion alone proves neither convergence nor the value .
Tail sigma-algebra Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
For a sequence of random variables on a probability space , defineThe decreasing sigma-algebras are generated by the listed random variables. Their intersection consists of events expressible after discarding every finite prefix. No independence is required.[ref]
Probability: Theory and Examples (fifth edition) by Rick Durrett. Probability: Theory and Examples (fifth edition), §2.5 Convergence of Random Series, printed p. 81: definition of the tail sigma-field
The point is to distinguish a long observation record from a property of an infinite sequence. The event of seeing infinitely many heads and the event that sample means converge survive any finite change, while an exact first-head time does not. Kolmogorov's zero–one law adds the striking conclusion that under independence each tail event has probability zero or one; the tail sigma-algebra itself can still contain many nonempty sets.
