Correlated Gaussian common-mean estimator Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
Gauss-Markov theorem Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-11-05
Let with a fixed full column rank design matrix, and . Then ordinary least squares is a best linear unbiased estimator: every response-linear unbiased estimator has at least as much variance in every coefficient direction. A normal distribution is unnecessary.[ref]
The Truth about Linear Regression by Cosma Rohilla Shalizi. Chapter 21, section 21.3, printed pp. 363–365
For a proof put . A competing estimator is unbiased for every exactly when . Write ; then , so the cross terms vanish andThis positive semidefinite matrix inequality proves the simultaneous directional comparison. The scope is linear unbiased estimators, not all conceivable estimators: a biased ridge regression estimate may improve mean squared error for some signals. With correlated or unequal-variance errors, the corresponding known-covariance result uses generalized least squares.
Inverse-variance weighted mean 2026-10-05
For independent unbiased estimators of a common mean with known positive variances , the linear unbiased estimator with smallest variance has weights and variance . Unbiasedness requires . Minimizing by a Lagrange multiplier gives the weights, and the strictly positive diagonal Hessian matrix proves a unique global minimum. This conclusion requires no normality assumption.
A leave-one-out inverse-variance weighted consensus applies an inverse-variance weighted mean to all laboratories except the one being assessed. Suppose their results are independent random variables with common expected value and known positive variances . For laboratory , defineUnder this model it is the best linear unbiased estimator of from the remaining results. The omitted observation does not determine its own leave-one-out interlaboratory consensus value.
The minimum-variance property follows directly from the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. For any fixed coefficients satisfying , the linear unbiased estimator hasEquality holds precisely for . ThereforeThis is a comparison among linear unbiased estimators under the stated independent-error model; it requires no normal distribution assumption.
For an original example, assess a laboratory reporting with standard uncertainty . The other laboratories report with respective standard uncertainties , all in the same units. Their total precision is , givingThe held-out difference is , withThe denominator includes the benchmark's uncertainty even though was excluded. This uncertainty-normalized difference and a proficiency-test z-score based on a predetermined assessment scale answer different questions.
Shared bias in an interlaboratory consensus changes the uncertainty model. Suppose instead , where the common reference contribution has variance and the mutually independent residuals, independent also of , have variances . Coefficients summing to one preserve in the benchmark. Its variance is , so the minimizing coefficients use , andUsing the full marginal uncertainties as if they were independent changes the coefficients and loses the shared-reference structure. The propagation of uncertainty retains the covariance of dependent inputs.[ref]
If the held-out laboratory shares the same , that contribution cancels in , while it remains in the benchmark's absolute measurement uncertainty. Precision of a difference and knowledge of an absolute value are distinct properties. Estimated, result-dependent uncertainties or additional correlations require analysis of the actual estimator; the fixed known-variance proof does not establish optimality for those cases.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 219 1 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Linearity of expectation gives . Thus a linear unbiased estimator for every value of the distance modulus satisfies . Requiring unbiasedness at the single value would not impose this constraint; an unbiased estimator must work throughout the parameter space.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 ib Paper 4 19H b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-29
For this model, the Gauss-Markov theorem states that is the unique minimum-variance linear unbiased estimator of : ifis unbiased for every , then .
Indeed,so unbiasedness is equivalent to . WriteThe constraint becomes . Since the errors are independent with common variance ,Equality holds exactly when every , which gives and .