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The Bradley-Terry model assigns positive abilities ${\theta }_i$ and the displayed pairwise winning probabilities. Multiplying all abilities by the same positive scalar leaves the probabilities unchanged, so identifiability requires a normalization. In log abilities ${\beta }_i=\log {\theta }_i$, the model has comparison probabilities obtained from the logistic function. Either parametrization induces the same ordering of players.

Orient the edges of a comparison tree and set ${\eta }_{ij}=\log {\theta }_i-\log {\theta }_j$. After anchoring one vertex strength, these edge quantities are unconstrained coordinates. The Bradley-Terry model probability is the logistic function of ${\eta }_{ij}$, and its binomial log-likelihood contribution is $m[p{\eta }_{ij}-\log (1+e^{{\eta }_{ij}})]$. Differentiating gives the fitted odds $p/(1-p)$.

The intercept is the midpoint of the two log odds:Equivalently $e^{\alpha }$ is the geometric mean of the two odds. The logistic function evaluated at $\alpha$ represents a central event probability, and approximates the average of the two group probabilities when $\beta$ is small. It is not generally their arithmetic average, nor is $\alpha$ specifically the control-group log odds.

The Bradley-Terry model assigns comparison probability $q_i={\theta }_i/({\theta }_i+{\theta }_{i+1})$ to each observed edge. Up to factors independent of the parameters, its likelihood function isThe comparison graph is a path graph, hence a tree. After fixing ${\theta }_n=1$, its edge ratios are unconstrained positive coordinates: every collection $r_i={\theta }_i/{\theta }_{i+1}>0$ determines uniquely ${\theta }_i={\prod }_{k=i}^{n-1}{r}_k$.

For a convenient strict-concavity calculation, use the edge log-ratios in a Bradley-Terry comparison tree ${\eta }_i=\log r_i$. The log-likelihood separates asEach derivative is $m(p_i-q_i)$, where $q_i$ is the logistic function of ${\eta }_i$, and each second derivative is $-m{q}_i(1-q_i)<0$. Because $0<p_i<1$, there is a unique finite global maximum atConverting back gives the Bradley-Terry maximum-likelihood estimate on a path:Equivalently, recurse backwards using ${\hat{\theta }}_i={\hat{\theta }}_{i+1}{p}_i/(1-p_i)$. All estimates are finite and positive. The sample size $m$ changes the curvature of the likelihood but not this maximizer; absence of comparison cycles is what permits every empirical edge proportion to be fitted simultaneously.

For $k\in {\mathcal{N}}_i$, put $a_k^{(i)}={\sum }_{j\in {\mathcal{N}}_k\setminus \{i\}}{s}_j$ and $H_i={\sum }_{j\in {\mathcal{N}}_i}{s}_j$. Removing all factors independent of $s_i$ from the posterior distribution gives, for $u\in \{-1,1\}$,A stable implementation uses the difference of the log weights. The conditional log odds areso ${\pi }_i(+1\mid s_{-i},x)=1/(1+e^{-L_i})$, a logistic function. For very large $|L_i|$, evaluate this logistic expression using the sign of $L_i$ to avoid exponential overflow.

For Gibbs sampling for a finite hidden spin field, initialize any spin configuration. At every step choose $i\in D$ uniformly, draw a fresh uniform variable, set spin $i$ to $+1$ with the probability above and to $-1$ otherwise, and leave all remaining spins fixed. This Random-scan Gibbs sampler has the stated posterior distribution invariant by detailed balance of a random-scan Gibbs sampler. All conditional probabilities are strictly between zero and one. For the one-site case, the conditional probabilities are both $1/2$.