The ATLAS experiment and CMS experiment searched proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider at collision energies of and . The ATLAS experiment used silicon tracking, a solenoid, liquid-argon electromagnetic calorimeters and an external muon spectrometer. Its July 2012 paper reported a combined local statistical significance of standard deviations near ; this paper result is distinct from the initial 4 July announcement.[ref]
The CMS experiment used silicon tracking in a solenoid, lead-tungstate electromagnetic calorimeters and external muon chambers. Electrons combine tracks and particle showers; muons combine tracking and chamber hits; photons supply shower energies and directions. Selected and candidates, with , yielded invariant mass peaks. It checked lepton efficiencies with Z boson decays, estimated fake-lepton backgrounds from control samples with relaxed identification, and fitted the smooth diphoton background from data. Its combined local statistical significance was standard deviations near .[ref]
The ATLAS experiment compared signal-plus-background and background-only hypotheses with a profile likelihood, accounting for systematic uncertainties and correlations between decay channels. Diphoton and four-lepton candidates gave precise invariant masses; decays supplied additional evidence with poorer mass reconstruction because of escaping neutrinos. A local p-value concerns one specified mass; scanning masses requires a look-elsewhere effect correction.[ref]
Two-photon decay excludes spin one under the usual assumptions, but does not prove spin zero. A mass peak does not determine every Higgs boson coupling. Production rates, branching fractions and angular correlations require additional tests.[ref]
How much does a small directional uncertainty help? Consider an original idealized model: a source direction fixed in advance, uniform background directions over the full sphere, and circular acceptance radius . The accepted solid angle and single-event background probability are
The derivation integrates the area element on a unit sphere. For small in radians, : halving the radius quarters the accidental acceptance, to leading order. At acceptance vanishes; at it covers the full sphere. The solid angle has units of steradians; is dimensionless.
For , take a deliberately crude point spread function: stipulate that every signal direction lies uniformly inside that cap. The signal and background probability density functions per steradian are inside the cap and zero outside, and everywhere. Both integrate to one. For an event inside the cap their likelihood ratio is
This ratio compares two specified directional models; it is not the probability that the event came from the source. Such a conditional probability would additionally require prior source odds and the other selection information. For fixed source fraction among selected events, a normalized mixture distribution has density . For independent events the likelihood is the product of those densities; its ratio to background alone is
Outside-cap events contribute factors rather than being silently discarded. At , ; for a full-sky cap, and every gives . A directional model that cannot distinguish source from background carries no directional evidence.
Figure 1.
Chosen angular acceptance, directional likelihood and repeated background opportunities
. Original exact spherical-cap calculation and uniform-cap signal model. Radii and event counts are chosen illustrations, not IceCube angular resolutions or discovery data. The fixed source direction and independent uniform background assumptions are essential. Details.
As an original numerical example, radii and give and , respectively: nearly a hundredfold difference. For a fixed number of independent background events, the binomial distribution gives
With chosen , those radii give approximately and . A small single-event acceptance can become a common coincidence after many opportunities. This probability concerns a fixed cap, rather than a scan for the most favorable cap anywhere. For independent searches with common local tail probability , the corresponding global tail probability is ; overlapping sky searches generally violate that independence. Actual source tests must include directional response, nonuniform exposure, energy information and the look-elsewhere effect in their null calibration.