Parallel first-order reaction mechanism ($\mathrm{A}\stackrel{k_P}{\to }\mathrm{P},\mathrm{A}\stackrel{k_Q}{\to }\mathrm{Q}$)

A parallel first-order reaction mechanism consumes the same reactant through competing routes. Extend the product-split idea in catalytic selectivity by following both reaction products over time. Stipulate irreversible first-order reactions $\mathrm{A}\stackrel{k_P}{\to }\mathrm{P}$ and $\mathrm{A}\stackrel{k_Q}{\to }\mathrm{Q}$ in a uniformly mixed closed system of fixed volume and temperature. Initially only A is present, with concentration $A_0$. With $K=k_P+k_Q$,Here $K$ abbreviates a sum of rate constants, not an equilibrium constant. The rate equations are $-d[\mathrm{A}]/dt=K[\mathrm{A}]$, $d[\mathrm{P}]/dt=k_P[\mathrm{A}]$, and $d[\mathrm{Q}]/dt=k_Q[\mathrm{A}]$. Integrating the last two after solving the first proves the expressions and their conserved total $[\mathrm{A}]+[\mathrm{P}]+[\mathrm{Q}]=A_0$.

Choose two alternative models: model U has $(k_P,k_Q)=(0.30,0.10){\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$; model V has $(0.10,0.30){\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$. Both have $K=0.40{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$, so every measurement of A alone is identical, even with no measurement error. Yet their P-to-Q concentration ratios at any $t>0$ are $3$ and $1/3$, respectively. This is a precise failure of identifiability from that one observable. A calibrated measurement distinguishing P from Q resolves it within the stipulated two-route model.

At $t=5.00\mathrm{s}$, both models give $[\mathrm{A}]=e^{-2}{A}_0\approx 0.135335\mathrm{mmol}{\mathrm{L}}^{-1}$. Model U gives $([\mathrm{P}],[\mathrm{Q}])\approx (0.648499,0.216166)\mathrm{mmol}{\mathrm{L}}^{-1}$; model V exchanges these. Measuring only the summed reaction product concentration would also fail to distinguish them. Product-specific observations therefore answer a question that total conversion cannot. As with any reaction mechanism, fitting these observables still does not rule out a more elaborate untested route.