Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford / 2011 / B / 4 / a / Solution

Write $R=e^r$, $u=1.2$ and $d=0.9$. In a one-step binomial options pricing model, absence of arbitrage requires $d<R<u$. If $R\le d$, borrowing to buy the stock gives a nonnegative gain in either state and a positive gain in at least one. If $R\ge u$, shorting the stock and investing the proceeds does the same. Conversely, strict inequalities give the risk-neutral probability $q=(R-d)/(u-d)\in (0,1)$, under which the discounted stock is a martingale; this excludes arbitrage at each node. Hence