Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2012 / ia / Paper 2 / 11F / ii

The geometric family law on the nonnegative integers has probability generating functionIts expected value is $G^{\prime }(1)=1$, so this is a geometric-offspring critical branching process. Starting from $G_0(s)=s$, verify the rational iterate by induction. If $G_n(s)=[n-(n-1)s]/[n+1-ns]$, thenwhich has the same form with $n$ replaced by $n+1$. Thus, for $n\ge 1$,The stated disk is the actual power-series convergence domain, not merely a place where the rational continuation can be evaluated. Its simple pole is at $s=1+1/n$.

The extinction probability at generation $n$ is the constant coefficient:For later use, expanding the remaining geometric series givesIn particular $P(X_n>0)=1/(n+1)$. At $n=0$ the initial population is one deterministically; its PGF is $s$, and the displayed radius involving $1/n$ is used only for $n\ge 1$.