Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2012 / iii / Paper 33 / 6

Let $M_t={\max }_{0\le s\le t}{B}_s$. The Brownian reflection principle givesHere is the reflection argument: on paths that hit $1$ before $t$, reflect all increments after their first hitting time. The Strong Markov property gives independent Brownian motion after that time, whose sign can be reversed without changing its law. This exchanges paths ending below $1$ with paths ending above $1$. The latter have necessarily hit $1$, and the endpoint has no atom at $1$, giving the displayed equality. It also shows that $M_t$ has a continuous distribution at every positive level.

Writing $\Phi$ for the standard normal distribution function, the probability of staying below the barrier is thereforeSince $\Phi (h)-\Phi (0)\sim h/\sqrt{2\pi }$ as $h\downarrow 0$, the Brownian barrier survival asymptotic isAny smaller exponent gives a zero limit and any larger exponent gives an infinite limit, so this is the unique exponent producing a finite positive constant.

Let $X_i$ be independent and identically distributed random variables with mean $0$ and variance ${\sigma }^2\in (0,\infty )$, and put $S_0=0$, $S_k={\sum }_{i=1}^k{X}_i$. Define the polygonal interpolationwith the endpoint $W_n(1)=S_n/(\sigma \sqrt{n})$. The Donsker invariance principle stateswhere $B$ is standard one-dimensional Brownian motion and the arrow denotes weak convergence of probability measures on this path space. Equivalently, the step interpolation converges in the Skorokhod space with its $J_1$ topology. The continuous interpolation version is sufficient for the maximum in part (c).

For the simple symmetric random walk, the increments have mean $0$ and variance $1$. Use the polygonal interpolation from (b). The maximum functional is Lipschitz in the supremum norm, sinceEach interpolating segment is linear, so its maximum occurs at a grid endpoint. The continuous mapping theorem applied to the Donsker invariance principle givesThe limiting maximum has no atom at $a>0$ by the Brownian reflection principle, so the closed-tail probabilities converge at this threshold. Including $j=0$ does not change the event because $a>0$. Therefore the random-walk maximum limit from Donsker invariance isHere $\Phi$ is the standard normal distribution function. The normalization and the positive-threshold condition are those in the PDF; the TeX aid's $\sqrt{t}$ is not the printed expression.