Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2012 / iii / Paper 36 / 4

Write $e=y-g_{\theta }(x)$ and $h_{\theta }(x)=\partial g_{\theta }(x)/\partial \theta$. Holding the nuisance parameter $\eta$ fixed, the parametric score function is the derivative with respect to $\theta$ of the one-observation log-likelihood. The joint probability density function isBecause $\partial e/\partial \theta =-h_{\theta }(x)$, differentiating givesFor instance $E_{\eta }{h}_{\theta }(X{)}^2<\infty$ ensures a square-integrable score function. Its expected value is zero by independence and the centered normal distribution of the error. This is the Gaussian regression score.

Vary only the probability density function of $X$, using ${\eta }_t=\eta (1+tb)$ with bounded $b$ and $E_{\eta }b(X)=0$. The nuisance score function is $b(X)$, giving the statistical tangent setIts closed linear span is the nuisance tangent space of all centered $L^2(\eta )$ functions of $X$, by density of bounded centered scores.

The conditional expectation of the parametric score function given $X$ is zero:It is therefore orthogonal to this nuisance tangent space. Its orthogonal projection onto that space vanishes, so the efficient score is unchanged. By independence and $E{\epsilon }^2={\sigma }^2$,These equal the parametric score function and Fisher information when $\eta$ is known. There is no loss of information from the unknown covariate density. This is adaptivity to an unknown covariate distribution; it follows from score orthogonality, without having to estimate the nuisance parameter.

Now $p_{\theta ,\eta }(x,y)=v(x)f(y-g_{\theta }(x))$. With $h_{\theta }={\partial }_{\theta }{g}_{\theta }$ and the location score $\rho (e)=-f^{\prime }(e)/f(e)$, differentiation of the log-likelihood givesTake the usual regularity conditions $h_{\theta }\in L^2(v)$ and $\rho \in L^2(f)$ so that this score function belongs to L2 space.

For the specified nuisance statistical path, differentiating $\log (1+t\gamma (e))$ at zero gives the score function $\gamma (e)$. Normalization requires $E_f\gamma =0$. There is a second constraint: the statistical path must preserve the model's zero error expected value. ThusThis constraint follows from being a path through the model, rather than from normalization alone. For a centered symmetric logistic distribution, for example, $\gamma (e)=\tanh (e)$ is bounded and has zero expected value, but $E[\epsilon \tanh (\epsilon )]>0$; it would not preserve the mean.

For any $\psi \in L^2(v)$, independence impliesAll these products are integrable by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, since $\epsilon \psi (X)$ is square-integrable. Thus every such error-density score function is orthogonal to every $e\psi (x)$. Covariate-density nuisance score functions $b(X)$ are also orthogonal to these functions, since $E\epsilon =0$. This is the mean-preserving error tangent space orthogonality used in the final calculation.

First use the additional admitted form of the efficient score. Write $\tilde{\ell }=e\zeta (X)$ and let ${\tau }^2=E_f{\epsilon }^2>0$. The difference $\dot{\ell }-\tilde{\ell }$ is the orthogonal projection onto the nuisance tangent space. Part (c) makes every $e\psi (X)$ orthogonal to that space. Therefore, for all $\psi \in L^2(v)$,The function in braces belongs to L2 space; choosing it as $\psi$ shows it vanishes $v$-almost everywhere. Hence the required conditional deduction isUnder the regular tail condition $sf(s)\to 0$ at both infinities, integration by parts gives $\int s{f}^{\prime }(s)ds=-1$, and the formula becomes $e{h}_{\theta }(x)/{\tau }^2$. This also confirms the sign.

The admitted product form is an extra restriction; it does not follow for every independent-error regression model. To locate the restriction precisely, suppose the error-density nuisance statistical paths preserve both normalization and mean to first order. Their closed mean-preserving error tangent space is $\{\gamma :E_f\gamma =E_f(\epsilon \gamma )=0\}$. The full nuisance tangent space is the orthogonal sum of this space and the centered functions of $X$.

For completeness, bounded functions satisfying the two constraints are dense in the error space. Truncate an arbitrary element, subtract its expected value, and then subtract a multiple of a fixed bounded centered function $q$ with $E_f(\epsilon q)\ne 0$. Such a $q$ exists by truncating $\epsilon$, since ${\tau }^2>0$. The correction coefficients tend to zero by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, so the corrected truncations converge in L2 space.

Let $m=E_v{h}_{\theta }(X)$. With $E_f\rho =0$ and $E_f(\epsilon \rho )=1$, the orthogonal projection of $h_{\theta }(X)\rho (\epsilon )$ onto the error nuisance space is $m\{\rho (\epsilon )-\epsilon /{\tau }^2\}$; its projection onto the covariate nuisance space is zero. Thus the general efficient score in independent-error regression isThe orthogonality of the two terms gives the displayed efficient information. For a normal distribution of the error, $\rho (e)=e/{\tau }^2$, so this reduces to the admitted formula. It also does so when $h_{\theta }$ is constant.

A concrete counterexample to the generality of the admission is $g_{\theta }(x)=\theta x$, with $X$ uniform on $[-1,1]$ and independent standard logistic distribution error. Here $m=0$ and $\rho (e)=\tanh (e/2)$, so the actual efficient score is $x\tanh (e/2)$. It cannot equal $e\zeta (x)$ because $\tanh (e/2)/e$ is not constant. This score function is already orthogonal to every nuisance score function: its factor $X$ is centered against error-only directions, and its factor $\rho (\epsilon )$ is centered against covariate-only directions. The requested formula is valid under its stated additional admission, with the general independent-error formula above explaining its limits.