Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2016 / iii / Paper 211 / 2

The short rate is the limiting instantaneous forward rate at the present maturity. The continuously compounded zero-coupon bond price is obtained by integrating the instantaneous forward rate curve in its maturity variable. Both requested relations areIn particular $P(T,T)=1$, and $f(t,T)=-{\partial }_T\log P(t,T)$. The short rate here is instantaneous, rather than the one-period rate used in a discrete-time bank account.

For fixed maturity $T$, define $b_t^T={\int }_t^T\sigma (t,u)du$ and $I_t^T={\int }_t^{T}f(t,u)du$. The stochastic Fubini theorem and the moving lower endpoint giveThe factor $1/2$ is the integral over one of the two triangles in the square $[t,T{]}^2$. Applying the Itô formula to $P(t,T)=e^{-I_t^T}$, its quadratic-variation correction cancels that factor:Set $D_t=e^{-{\int }_0^t{r}_{s}ds}$, the reciprocal of the continuous-time bank account. The Itô product rule then givesIf $|\sigma |\le M$, then $|b_t^T|\le MT$ on this finite horizon. The Novikov condition holds, so this stochastic exponential is a true martingale, not merely a local martingale. The discounted price is thereforeThe authoritative PDF discounts to $t$ in this part. The TeX transcription's upper endpoint $T$ would include future short rates and is incorrect here.

Since $P(T,T)=1$, part (b) shows that the density process of the T-forward measure isIts terminal expectation is one and it is strictly positive, so the stated Radon-Nikodym derivative defines an equivalent probability measure. By the Girsanov theorem,is a Brownian motion under ${\mathbb{Q}}_T$. Substitution of $d{W}_t=d{W}_t^T-b_t^{T}dt$ cancels the entire instantaneous forward rate drift:Because the integrand is deterministic and bounded, its Itô integral is square-integrable on $[0,T]$. With the usual fixed initial instantaneous forward rate curve, the requested true martingale is

Use the Radon-Nikodym derivative at $T_1$ and the discounted bond price martingale from part (b):For the variance, put $b_t^i={\int }_t^{T_i}\sigma (t,u)du$ and $d_t=b_t^2-b_t^1={\int }_{T_1}^{T_2}\sigma (t,u)du$, for $t\le T_1$. The ratio $R_t=P(t,T_2)/P(t,T_1)$ has, by the Itô formula,Under the T-forward measure ${\mathbb{Q}}_{T_1}$, $d{W}_t=d{W}_t^{T_1}-b_t^{1}dt$, so its drift becomes $-d_t^2/2$. Since $R_{T_1}=P(T_1,T_2)$,The first two terms are deterministic; the Itô isometry supplies the variance of the last. The two requested answers areIn fact the terminal zero-coupon bond price has a log-normal distribution under this forward measure, with the deterministic negative half-variance correction ensuring the displayed mean.