Past exam of the physics A course of the University of Cambridge / 2022 / Paper 1 / Section C / C8 / d

Assume independent normally distributed angle errors with known standard deviation ${\sigma }_y=0.002$. The relevant chi-squared test uses the sum of squared standardized residuals,For the model through the origin, the predictions and residuals, expressed in milliradians, areConsequently ${\chi }_0^2=30.0280$. There are $4-1=3$ statistical degrees of freedom. The upper-tail P-value is approximately $1.36\times 10^{-6}$; equivalently the value greatly exceeds the $5\%$ critical value $7.815$. The zero-intercept model is strongly rejected under the stated errors.

For the alternative linear regression, minimize ${\sum }_i(y_i-c^{\prime }{x}_i-d{)}^2$. Setting both partial derivatives to zero gives the normal equations, whose solution isFor these data $\bar{x}=2508.83699{\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$, $\bar{y}=0.0475$, and $S_{xx}=4.830232\times 10^6{\mathrm{m}}^{-4}$. This yieldsThe new predictions are $(66.6548,55.4171,41.4315,26.4966)\mathrm{mrad}$, with residuals $(-0.6548,-0.4171,2.5685,-1.4966)\mathrm{mrad}$. ThereforeThe affine model is compatible with the data. Allowing for its additional fitted parameter, the decrease $\Delta {\chi }^2=27.668$ has a chi-squared distribution with one statistical degree of freedom under the nested zero-intercept hypothesis, corresponding to $p\simeq 1.44\times 10^{-7}$. Thus the model with a fitted intercept provides the better description, rather than merely lowering the residual by adding a parameter.

With the measurement variance treated as known, the coefficient uncertainties areHence $d=(13.11\pm 2.49)\mathrm{mrad}$, about $5.26$ standard deviations above zero. A positive constant systematic error in the angular zero, or an additional nearly constant torque, could account for it. Its presence is evidence against the ideal zero-intercept model; four points alone do not identify the physical cause uniquely. A calibration error in $\kappa$ only rescales the inferred gravitational constant and cannot remove this residual pattern.

Using the fitted slope after allowing for this offset would give $G^{\prime }=\kappa {\hat{c}}^{\prime }/(mML)=(7.27\pm 0.51)\times 10^{-11}{\mathrm{m}}^3\mathrm{k}{\mathrm{g}}^{-1}{\mathrm{s}}^{-2}$, with the period and slope errors combined in quadrature. This is conditional on the constant-offset model.