Past exam of the plate tectonics course of the University of Oxford / 2024 / 2

Cascadia subducts a young, warm plate and lacks the enormous plateau and crustal root of the central Andes; the central Andean Nazca Plate system also supports much deeper intraslab earthquakes. These are regional comparisons: neither western margin is uniform along its length.

First, the Juan de Fuca Plate entering Cascadia is young, typically of order 10 million years old, because its spreading ridge lies close to the margin. Its lithosphere is comparatively thin and warm. Much of the Nazca Plate entering the central Andes is older and colder. A cold plate carries low temperatures farther into the mantle, sustaining deep intraslab seismicity; the warm Cascadia slab loses its brittle seismogenic character much shallower. This concerns earthquakes within the slab, not the size of megathrust earthquakes: both margins can generate very large plate-interface events. The official warm-slab synthesis treats Cascadia as an endmember.^[ref]

Second, the central Andes have undergone major sustained crustal shortening and tectonic thickening, building a high plateau and locally roughly 60–70 km thick continental crust. Cascadia has an active volcanic arc and mountains but no equivalent continuous central-Andean plateau and crustal root. The difference reflects the accumulated history of convergence, upper-plate deformation, slab dip, trench motion and mechanical coupling, not just the instantaneous existence of subduction. The Andes include flat-slab segments with gaps in arc volcanism as well as normally dipping segments.^[ref][ref]

A young warm incoming plate and a faster, colder incoming plate can therefore generate different thermal structures, dehydration patterns and deformation histories. Plate age alone is insufficient to predict the thickness of the overriding continental crust.

Three earthquake sources matter: the offshore Cascadia megathrust, deep events inside the Juan de Fuca Plate, and shallow upper-plate faults, including the Seattle Fault. Shaking can damage buildings, bridges, ports and utility networks, interrupting transport, electricity and water supply. Soft basin sediments can amplify or prolong shaking; saturated loose fill can undergo soil liquefaction and lateral spreading. Steep slopes can fail as landslides. The same regional event can therefore have very different consequences on bedrock and on artificial fill.^[ref]

Large Cascadia tsunamis chiefly threaten the outer Pacific coast. Seattle's inland waterways also have local tsunami hazards from crustal faults and underwater landslides; one should not equate a Seattle waterfront site with an open-ocean coastal site. Cascade eruptions can affect the region through volcanic ash and transport disruption. Lahars are strongly channelled by river valleys, so their exposure is location dependent rather than uniform across Seattle. These geological differences influence infrastructure design, land-use decisions and emergency planning.^[ref][ref]

In the interpretation of Christopher Kincaid and colleagues, slab rollback deforms and splits a mantle plume's thermal anomaly: one branch is swept toward the trench beneath the High Lava Plains, whereas the Snake River Plain records the overriding plate moving over a deformed plume conduit. Two opposite age progressions need not represent two stationary hotspots.

In the supplied map, ages decrease toward Yellowstone in the northeast and toward Newberry Volcano in the northwest. Southwestward North American Plate motion leaves older Snake River Plain volcanism to the southwest of the younger source expression. Meanwhile, rollback-driven, three-dimensional mantle flow, including toroidal mantle flow around the slab, carries a passive thermal anomaly trenchward beneath the High Lava Plains. The associated migrating heating and melting front produces the opposite younging toward Newberry Volcano.

The original experiment used a viscous syrup mantle analogue, a kinematically moved rigid slab, and an injected buoyant thermal plume. The result is advection of deformed plume heat by subduction-driven flow, rather than simple radial spreading of an intact plume head under a stationary plate. The mapped systematic progression principally concerns rhyolitic volcanism; basaltic eruptions are more diffuse in time. This laboratory result establishes a physically plausible explanation, not a unique observational proof of the deep source geometry.^[ref]

Left: ordinary frictional strengthening with depth followed by thermally activated material creep. Right: a very weak shallow faulted layer above a narrow strong region near 10 km, followed by essentially the same weakening material creep branch. These are the shapes actually plotted in Figure 2. The right curve is not a strong upper crust over a uniformly weak lower crust; neither diagram displays a second mantle-strength peak.

For the left curve, increasing overburden increases the effective normal load on faults. A schematic Coulomb friction law iswhere $C$ is cohesion, $\mu$ the coefficient of friction, ${\sigma }_n$ the compressive normal stress and $P_f$ the pore pressure. With ordinary rock friction and approximately hydrostatic pressure, ${\sigma }_n-P_f$ increases roughly linearly with depth. The stress needed for frictional sliding therefore increases, as in the straight shallow branch. Byerlee's law summarizes the relatively high friction found in many laboratory rocks.^[ref]

At higher temperature, dislocation creep or another ductile mechanism accommodates the imposed deformation at lower stress. For example,Here $\dot{ϵ}$ is strain rate, $Q$ an activation energy, $R$ the molar gas constant and $T$ absolute temperature. At fixed strain rate, increasing $T$ lowers the required stress. The operative envelope is approximately $\min ({\sigma }_f,{\sigma }_d)$, expressed in a consistent stress convention; the peak marks the brittle-ductile transition. This accounts for the left curve's peak near 100 MPa and its decline toward small strength by about 20 km.

For the right curve, normal high-friction sliding with depth-independent fluid-pressure ratio cannot explain the nearly vertical weak shallow branch. Plausible weakening includes high pore pressure tracking the overburden, low-friction fault gouge, or a connected network of pre-existing weak faults. Roughly constant small ${\sigma }_n-P_f$ yields roughly constant small frictional strength. The abrupt increase near the base of this layer requires a change of conditions: for example, the weak fluid-rich fault network terminates or becomes discontinuous, leaving stronger intact or less altered rock below. A change in mineralogy or deformation localization can also give a contrast. Simply saying “there are fluids” does not explain the return to high strength. Below the strong region, thermal material creep again lowers the strength.

The figure alone does not identify the weakening mechanism or a particular lithological boundary. In particular, a 10 km strength maximum is not evidence for a 10 km deep Mohorovičić discontinuity. The strong-fault/weak-fault evidence and the distinction between fault strength and surrounding crustal strength are discussed in Stress orientations at intermediate angles to the San Andreas Fault, California by Jeanne L. Hardebeck and Andrew J. Michael.

Support for the left curve comes from high laboratory friction and substantial in situ differential stress; support for the right curve comes from low inferred fault traction, weak fault materials or high pore pressure. No single observation directly measures the whole plotted envelope.

For the left, stronger shallow-crust model:

For the right, weak shallow-layer model:

To discriminate, measure the strength-controlling quantities through depth and across both faults and their surroundings. Obtain borehole stress, pore pressure and temperature profiles where feasible; use borehole breakouts and hydraulic tests to constrain effective stress. Recover fault and host rocks and test their friction and material creep at relevant fluid conditions. The right curve specifically predicts an end to the shallow weakening near its sharp rise: investigate changes in permeability of a porous medium, alteration and fault gouge with depth, rather than testing only a surface sample.

Combine those measurements with heat flux transects, magnetotelluric sounding for conductive fluids, accurate earthquake depths and focal mechanisms, and GNSS or InSAR observations of deformation. The latter can help constrain the depth distribution of locking and postseismic relaxation, but neither locking nor seismicity alone gives absolute strength. Earthquake stress drop is a change in stress, not the pre-event stress. Low heat flux can also reflect heat transport or transient weakening; high electrical conductivity can have causes other than free water. A joint explanation of all these data is needed to choose between the models locally.