Assume a dilute nondegenerate hydrogen gas in thermal and chemical equilibrium, with Maxwell-Boltzmann translational partition functions, ground-state neutral atoms, single ionization and charge neutrality . For , chemical equilibrium gives . The ideal-gas relation , with , gives
Neglecting the electron mass in and using the ground-state electronic statistical weights, and with cancelling nuclear-spin factors, this becomes
Excited neutral states have an energy gap of at least above the ground state. At the temperatures relevant to the plotted maximum their Boltzmann factors are very small despite the finite degeneracy increase. Highly excited levels also require a physical plasma cutoff; the untruncated infinite isolated-atom partition sum is not a valid finite-density model. Ground-state dominance is an approximation in this regime, not a theorem at all temperatures.
Take the heating process to keep the total hydrogen-nucleus density fixed, so . This fixed-density assumption is needed to determine from the curve; freely expanding gas would require its density history. The excited-to-ground ratio is . Therefore
At low temperature excitation is suppressed. At higher temperature excitation grows, but eventually ionization removes neutral atoms and the excited-neutral abundance decreases. To locate the maximum quantitatively, write . From ,
Setting gives
Reading the original graph gives K and . With eV, this implies and . Substitution into
gives approximately . The result is particularly temperature-sensitive because of the Saha exponential; using K gives about , while the coarse K reading gives about . The plotted height is consistent with this range and should not be used to claim more precision than the source graph provides.

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