Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford / 2017 / 3 / b / ii / Solution

Put $A=a+s>1$ and $B=b+n-s>1$ as in part (a), and let $F_{A,B}$ be the cumulative distribution function of the beta distribution $\mathrm{Beta}(A,B)$. The two endpoint equations areThe first equation fixes the posterior probability, and the second makes the two endpoint posterior densities equal. Their admissible ordering isTo justify sufficiency and uniqueness, the derivative of the logarithm of the posterior density iswhich is positive below $m=(A-1)/(A+B-2)$ and negative above it. Thus the posterior density increases strictly to its unique mode and decreases strictly thereafter, vanishing at both ends. Each density threshold $k$ between zero and the maximum determines exactly one endpoint on each side of $m$. The probability between these endpoints decreases continuously and strictly from one to zero as $k$ increases, so exactly one threshold gives 0.95. This is the beta highest posterior density endpoint characterization.