Past exam of the topics in applied mathematics course of the University of Oxford / 2010 / B / 6 / iii / Solution

A useful operational definition of chaos for a deterministic flow is bounded, nonperiodic long-time dynamics on an invariant set with sensitive dependence on initial conditions: arbitrarily close starting states can separate by a fixed macroscopic amount. Boundedness distinguishes recurrent irregular dynamics from simple exponential escape; aperiodicity excludes a limit cycle; sensitivity distinguishes chaotic unpredictability from a regular quasiperiodic signal. These are properties of the asymptotic dynamics, not a short irregular transient. One precise topological convention, Devaney chaos on a compact invariant set, instead specifies topological transitivity, dense periodic orbits, and sensitive dependence. Transitivity expresses indecomposability of the recurrent motion, while dense periodic orbits mean every region contains unstable recurrent structure. The convention should be stated because these formulations are not identical in complete generality.

An attractor is an invariant set approached by trajectories from a neighbourhood or positive-measure basin, according to the adopted attractor convention. Calling it strange refers to irregular, typically fractal geometry rather than a smooth point, cycle or torus. Strangeness alone does not force chaos. Strange nonchaotic attractors provide counterexamples: geometrically irregular attracting sets can lack positive exponential separation. Primary examples appear in ^[ref]. This geometric convention does not assert that every such example occurs in the autonomous three-variable Lorenz family.

Two complementary numerical diagnostics are to estimate the largest Lyapunov exponent and to construct a return map. For the first, integrate the variational equation $\dot{\eta }=DF(x(t))\eta$ alongside the Lorenz trajectory, repeatedly normalize $\eta$, and average the logarithms of the accumulated stretch factors after discarding a transient. A positive converged exponent suggests sensitive exponential separation; the full spectrum should include a zero flow exponent and have sum $-(\sigma +1+b)$, providing checks. For the second, record transverse crossings of a Poincaré section or successive maxima of a state variable, then look for the stretching and folding of an aperiodic return set rather than one point or a finite cycle. Nearby-orbit separation or a broadband power spectrum can add evidence, but plots alone do not prove chaos. Repeat with smaller integration step, longer runs and several initial conditions to distinguish numerical error, long transients and coexistence of attractors from persistent dynamics.