Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 42 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write . The kernel density estimator with bandwidth isSufficient conditions are that be a nonnegative symmetric probability density function with and finite nonzero second moment , and that , . Symmetry and the second-moment assumption give . The expectation is a convolution:Taylor's theorem with integral remainder givesThe zeroth-order term integrates to , and the first-order term vanishes. The second derivative is bounded and continuous, so dominated convergence, with dominating function proportional to , yieldsCombining this with the supplied leading variance gives the asymptotic mean squared errorWhen and , its derivative is . It changes sign exactly once, giving the pointwise optimal kernel bandwidthPositivity of is needed for this positive interior optimum. The printed condition alone does not ensure it. For instance, is a normalized bounded probability density function with bounded continuous square-integrable second derivative, but and . At this point the displayed leading variance vanishes and the two-term AMSE has no positive interior minimizer; finer variance terms are needed to determine an appropriate bandwidth. The formal formula there gives zero, which does not satisfy the bandwidth assumptions.
For integrated error, the same expansion holds in : translation continuity of applied to the integral remainder givesIndeed Minkowski's integral inequality bounds the norm of the difference, divided by , by the integral of ; each translated difference tends to zero and is bounded by . This proves the claimed integrated bias expansion without assuming a uniform pointwise remainder over the whole real line.
If , direct integration of the variance givesThe last term is because is bounded and integrable, hence square integrable, and convolution with a probability density function does not increase its norm. It is negligible compared with . Thus the asymptotic mean integrated squared error and its minimizer areHere : otherwise the continuous second derivative vanishes everywhere, making affine, impossible for a probability density function on the whole real line.
Now take the standard normal density . Differentiation gives . Gaussian integration givesThe kernel constants cancel from the bandwidth ratio. At ,Put . The logarithmic derivative of is . On the function increases, giving its minimum at , with value one. On it decreases up to and then increases, giving its minimum . Thus the global minimizers are , and the normal-density local-to-global bandwidth ratio isThe ratio diverges at the two inflection points , where the second-order pointwise bias approximation vanishes and needs a higher-order replacement.
Normal-density pointwise bandwidth relative to the integrated-error optimum; minima at plus and minus square root of five
. Details. Smoothing bandwidth Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
A smoothing bandwidth determines the scale over which a regression kernel averages data, or a kernel for density estimation spreads each observation. It has the same units as the observations. In kernel density estimation, changing changes the visible detail while preserving the total integral one. For a Gaussian density kernel, each bump has standard deviation and its individual contribution has peak height .
If the smoothing bandwidth is too small relative to the spacings in a statistical sample, the kernel density estimator shows narrow spikes tied to individual observations: apparent peaks may be sampling accidents. If it is too large relative to features of the unknown probability density function, it blurs distinct groups together and spreads fitted probability far from the observations. An intermediate smoothing bandwidth can reveal broad structure, but visual smoothness alone cannot establish accuracy.
The same sample at three Gaussian bandwidths, and leakage below zero for a separate positive sample
. Details. The first three panels use exactly with smoothing bandwidths , and , respectively. Every curve has area one; the two groups in the observed statistical sample become less distinct as increases. No true probability density function is specified in this illustration, so the middle panel is illustrative, not a certified optimal fit. The fourth panel uses and to illustrate boundary bias of a kernel density estimator.
For a fixed nonnegative kernel for density estimation with finite squared integral, a probability density function that is bounded and continuous at an interior point with , and a deterministic sequence , the pointwise sampling variance obeysThus decreasing the smoothing bandwidth increases the leading sampling variance while reducing interior smoothing bias of an estimator: this is a bias-variance tradeoff. The conditions and express two goals, increasingly fine resolution and enough observations contributing locally. Practical methods such as plug-in bandwidth selection use the data to choose ; pointwise optimal kernel bandwidth depends on local features of the unknown probability density function. The smoothing bandwidth remains a tuning choice in nonparametric statistics, and knowing the support of a probability distribution can require more than a width adjustment near a boundary.

