Resolvent bound for a discrete SIR epidemic ($\mathbb{E}Z\le 1^T(I-\beta A{)}^{-1}X(0)$)

When $\beta \rho (A)<1$, summing the adjacency-matrix bound for a discrete SIR epidemic gives the displayed Neumann series bound on the expected total infected count $Z$. For an undirected graph, the adjacency matrix of a graph is a symmetric matrix, so its Euclidean operator norm equals its spectral radius. The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality then yields $\mathbb{E}Z\le \sqrt{nm}/(1-\beta \rho )$ for $m$ initially infected vertices.

The displayed condition and the resolvent bound for a discrete SIR epidemic imply $\mathbb{E}Z=o(n)$. The Markov inequality then makes $Z/n\to 0$ in probability. A sufficient special case is a sublinear initial infected count $m=o(n)$ with a fixed positive gap $1-\beta \rho \ge \eta >0$. The inequality $\beta \rho <1$ at each finite population size alone does not control a shrinking gap or an initially macroscopic outbreak.