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With three distinct positive roots of an equation, the negative-leading cubic polynomial has the sign patternEquivalently its derivative is negative at the first root of an equation, positive at the middle root of an equation, and negative at the final root of an equation. The phase line arrows therefore point toward the two outer equilibrium points and away from the middle one:The middle equilibrium point separates the two basin of attraction in the bistability mathematical model parameter interval.

Write $S_0=S_{initial}$ and $I_0=I_{initial}$. Until quarantine and while $I,S>0$, division of the equations givesIntegration from the initial state yields the first integralLet $S_{\ast }$ be the susceptible count at the first time $I=I_{\ast }$. It is the root of an equation reached on the decreasing-$S$ outbreak trajectory ofFor a strictly rising threshold crossing this is the larger admissible root of an equation, with $a/r<S_{\ast }<S_0$; if the threshold equals the peak, $S_{\ast }=a/r$. The assumption that quarantine is reached selects the physically relevant branch and excludes a merely hypothetical declining-branch crossing after an earlier one.

Since there is no incubation period here, all removals from $S$ have already become infection cases by quarantine. No further susceptible individuals are infected after isolation. The requested number among the initially susceptible individuals is therefore

Let $S(x,y,z)=(-x,-y,z)$. In the first two components of the vector field, replacing $x,y$ by their negatives changes the sign of the whole component; in the third, the product $xy$ is unchanged. Thus $F(Sv)=SF(v)$, establishing the symmetry, with solutions mapped to solutions by $S$.

At an equilibrium point, positivity of $a$ makes $y=x$. The remaining equations give $x(2c-a-z)=0$ and $z=x^2/b$. Hencewhere the two nonzero equilibrium points exist when $0<a<2c$. They merge with the origin at $a_p=2c$, in a pitchfork bifurcation.

At the origin the Jacobian matrix and its eigenvalues areAt $a=2c$ these are $0,-c,-b$. To see the local pitchfork bifurcation dynamics more explicitly put $\delta =2c-a$, $y=x+v$, and use $z=x^2/b+\cdots$ on the center manifold. The equations becomeAt $\delta =0$, invariance at cubic order gives $v=-x^3/(bc)+\cdots$, hence the reduced equation isIt has the supercritical pitchfork bifurcation form as $\delta$ increases, with the two branches $x\simeq \pm \sqrt{b\delta }$ attracting near onset while the origin becomes unstable.

For $0<a<2c$, the determinant of the planar block is $a(a-2c)<0$, so the origin has one positive and two negative eigenvalues and is a saddle equilibrium. At $a=c$, the planar eigenvalues are explicitly $\pm c$. For $a>2c$, the planar trace $c-a$ is negative and its determinant positive, so the origin is asymptotically stable. To distinguish its type putFor $2c<a<a_{\ast }$ both planar eigenvalues are real negative, giving a stable node. At $a=a_{\ast }$ they coincide at $-c/\sqrt{3}$; the planar block is not a scalar matrix, so it is a defective stable node. For $a>a_{\ast }$ they are nonreal with negative real part, giving a stable spiral in the planar block together with the stable third direction. This refines the requested node-versus-saddle classification.

The origin cannot have a Hopf bifurcation: a planar imaginary pair would require trace zero, namely $a=c$, but the determinant there is $-c^2<0$, so the pair is real and of opposite signs.

For either nonzero equilibrium point put $s=\pm \sqrt{b(2c-a)}$. The Jacobian matrix isIts characteristic polynomial isA nonzero imaginary root of an equation $i\omega$ requires, by separating real and imaginary parts, ${\omega }^2=B$ and $AB=C$. Equivalentlyso the candidate Hopf bifurcation values areAt such an admissible value the factorization is $p(\lambda )=(\lambda +A)({\lambda }^2+bc)$, giving the pair $\pm i\sqrt{bc}$ and a negative third eigenvalue $-A$, since $A=C/B>0$ on the nonzero branches.

The mathematical model parameter restrictions matter. A real candidate requires $b/c\le 17/8$, and the nonzero equilibrium points also require $0<a_h<2c$. The upper-sign value is admissible for $0<b/c<17/8$; the lower-sign value additionally requires $b/c>1$. For fixed $b,c$, differentiation of the characteristic equation at the imaginary root of an equation gives the eigenvalue crossing speedThus the transverse eigenvalue crossing condition holds except at the coincident-root case $b/c=17/8$, $a_h=3c/4$. At a transverse eigenvalue crossing, a generic nonzero first Lyapunov coefficient gives a Hopf bifurcation. The displayed radical is the spectral threshold; it does not justify an unconditional generic-Hopf claim for all positive mathematical model parameters, nor does it by itself exclude a degenerate Hopf bifurcation point. For example $b>17c/8$ yields no real candidate at all. The cubic Routh-Hurwitz stability criterion gives local Lyapunov stability on the side with $A>0$ and $AB-C>0$, where

For the modified equation, the planar block at the origin is $\left(\begin{array}{cc}-a& a\\ c& c\end{array}\right)$, with determinant $-2ac<0$ for the stipulated positive mathematical model parameters. Thus the origin is always a saddle equilibrium for nonzero $a,c$ in that mathematical model parameter range. The nonzero equilibrium points now satisfy $y=x$, $z=2c$ and $x^2=2bc$, so they areFor $b,c>0$ these branches stay a positive distance from the origin and do not merge with it as $a$ varies. The origin also has no zero eigenvalue for $a,c>0$. Therefore the pitchfork bifurcation is absent in the modified system.

Consider the closed SIR model in count variables, with $\dot{S}=-rSI$, $\dot{I}=rSI-aI$, transmission coefficient $r>0$ and recovery rate $a>0$. An ideal intervention stops all further transmission at the first upward crossing of $I=I_{\ast }$. This is a mathematical contact-removal rule; its instantaneous perfect effect is an assumption of the model.

Before intervention,so $I+S-(a/r)\log S$ is a first integral of an ordinary differential equation. At the trigger, the remaining susceptible individual count $S_{\ast }$ is a root of an equation satisfyingThis is a transcendental equation, with $S_{\ast }>0$, rather than a polynomial equation.

For an initially growing outbreak with $I_0>0$ and $S_0>a/r$, the unmodified SIR model reaches its infectious-count peak at $S=a/r$, withA trigger with $I_0<I_{\ast }\le I_{\mathrm{peak}}$ is therefore reachable on this growth branch. The function $S-(a/r)\log S$ is strictly increasing for $S>a/r$, so the trigger equation has exactly one solution in $a/r\le S_{\ast }<S_0$. A threshold above $I_{\mathrm{peak}}$ is never reached; choosing another mathematical root would not describe the first upward crossing.

Once the assumed intervention stops transmission, recovery can continue but $S$ no longer changes. The number of new infections among those initially susceptible individuals is thus $S_0-S_{\ast }$. The initial $I_0$ is excluded from that count. An intervention with residual transmission, or a model with unobserved exposed individuals, requires a different final-size calculation.

A root of an equation is a value of its unknown that makes the equation true. For an equation $f(x)=0$, it is a zero of a function. More generally, roots of $f(x)=g(x)$ are zeros of $f-g$, provided both sides are defined at the candidate value.

For example, $x^2=4$ has the real roots $2,-2$. Clearing a denominator requires checking the original domain: solving $(x^2-1)/(x-1)=0$ permits $x=-1$ but not $x=1$. The coefficient field also matters, since $x^2+1=0$ has no real root but has two complex roots.