Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 27 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write the surplus process in the classical risk model as , with positive independent claims. Condition on the first claim time, which has exponential distribution of rate . If that claim occurs at , the available capital is and survival requires its size not to exceed that capital. The independent future process then givesPut and change variables . We obtainThe convolution of bounded with the integrable density is continuous; differentiation of this expression is therefore justified. It proves the survival version of the ruin integro-differential equation:
The density is a hyperexponential distribution with mixture weights and exponential rates . Its total integral is one and its mean isThe relative safety loading means . Substitution of gives and .
Set . Differentiating in its equivalent form gives . The survival equation becomesApply the constant-coefficient operator , where . Since and ,Expanding and cancelling yields . Thus .
Positive loading also fixes the limiting boundary value . Indeed the aggregate-claims process minus premium income tends to minus infinity almost surely by the strong law of large numbers. Its supremum over all time is consequently finite almost surely, since paths have finitely many jumps on bounded intervals. The probability that this supremum exceeds tends to zero. Hence . At zero, the given value is , and the integral equation supplies the extra condition . Thereforeso and . The nonruin probability isThis is the two-exponential-mixture survival probability. It increases from to and satisfies the original integral equation, not just the differentiated equation; the zero-capital derivative condition prevents introducing extraneous solutions.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 45 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The surplus in the classical risk model is . With ruin defined as a strictly negative surplus, its ultimate ruin probability isLet . The first arrival time has exponential distribution of rate , independent of the first claim. Before that claim no ruin occurs, because the premium rate is positive. Given its arrival at and size , available capital just before it is . If ruin is immediate; otherwise the independent increments and fresh claim sizes make subsequent ruin probability . Thus first-claim conditioning givesThis is the ruin counterpart of the first-claim decomposition for survival probability. DefineThe convolution term is continuous: extend the bounded function by zero to negative arguments and use continuity of translations in for the integrable density . The tail function is also continuous. Changing variables to yieldsDifferentiating this exponentially weighted integral establishes differentiability rather than presuming it. The fundamental theorem of calculus givesReversing the integration variable in the convolution therefore proves the ruin integro-differential equation:At zero the derivative is the right derivative; the same representation supplies it.
For the exponential claim law, introduceDifferentiating the explicit convolution gives . Henceusing the proved integral equation. Differentiating that equation once more givesso the required ordinary differential equation isPositive relative safety loading means , so . The general solution is .
The condition at large capital must also be used. The strong law of large numbers for the Poisson process and the independent claims gives almost surely. Thus . Its path has only finitely many jumps on each bounded time interval, so its supremum over all time is finite almost surely. Therefore as , forcing . The supplied initial value then gives ultimate ruin with exponential claims:The decay rate is also the exponential-claim adjustment coefficient.
For the maximum aggregate loss in a classical risk model, the ruin event is exactly . Since , , and its full cumulative distribution function isIn particular it has an atom of mass at zero. Conditional on , its distribution is exponential with rate ; omitting that atom would give an incorrectly normalized law.
Ultimate ruin with exponential claims 2026-10-14
For rate- exponential distribution claims and , the ruin integro-differential equation reduces to . Differentiate the convolution and use its equation to eliminate it. Positive relative safety loading implies as , and the zero-capital survival probability gives . These two conditions determine the displayed solution. The adjustment coefficient is .