Second-moment bound for positivity ($\mathbb{P}(N>0)\ge (\mathbb{E}N{)}^2/\mathbb{E}{N}^2$)

For a nonnegative random variable $N$ with positive expected value and finite second moment, write $N=N{1}_{\{N>0\}}$. The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality giveswhich proves the bound in second moment method. It is the zero-threshold case of the Paley-Zygmund inequality. Equality occurs when $N$ is a fixed positive value on the event $N>0$ and zero elsewhere, almost surely. For $N=10B$ with $B$ a Bernoulli random variable of parameter $1/10$, $(\mathbb{E}N{)}^2/\mathbb{E}{N}^2=1/10$ equals the exact positivity probability.

The variance identity $\mathbb{E}{N}^2=(\mathbb{E}N{)}^2+\mathrm{Var}(N)$ turns the lower bound into a statement about variance relative to the squared mean. A small ratio forces positivity to be likely. A positive expected value alone does not do so: keeping $\mathbb{E}N=1$ while taking $N=1/q$ with probability $q$ and zero otherwise makes the positivity probability as small as any chosen $q>0$.