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The Rao-Blackwell theorem says that if $S$ is a sufficient statistic and $\delta$ a finite-variance estimator, then ${\delta }^{\ast }=\mathbb{E}(\delta \mid S)$ is an estimator with the same expectation and no larger variance. Sufficiency ensures the conditional distribution, and hence this formula as a function of the data, does not involve the unknown parameter. The tower property of conditional expectation gives $\mathbb{E}{\delta }^{\ast }=\mathbb{E}\delta$, while the law of total variance givesThis proves the theorem and shows that equality holds exactly when $\delta$ is already determined by $S$, almost surely. In particular, unbiasedness is preserved.

Assume $n\ge 3$. Independence gives $\mathbb{E}\hat{\theta }=p_0{p}_1{p}_2=\theta$, so the proposed indicator is unbiased and has variance $\theta (1-\theta )$. The type counts $S=(n_0,n_1,n_2)$ are a sufficient statistic: conditional on them, every ordering of the labels is equally likely. Consequently,For example, the conditional probability of the ordered first three labels is $(n_0/n)(n_1/(n-1))(n_2/(n-2))$. This is Rao-Blackwellization of a multinomial probability product.

If all three $p_i$ are positive, there is positive probability that all three counts are positive. On such an event the conditional indicator has probability strictly between zero and one, so its conditional variance is positive. Thus $\mathrm{Var}({\theta }^{\ast })<\theta (1-\theta )$ for interior parameter values. If any $p_i=0$, then $\theta =0$ and both estimators have zero variance; the printed strict inequality is impossible at those boundary parameters. The valid unrestricted statement is the non-strict inequality.

A sufficient statistic is one for which the conditional distribution of the full sample, given its value, is independent of the parameter. For independent observations the likelihood is ${\prod }_{i=1}^6{p}_i^{n_i}$, depending on the data only through the counts. The factorization criterion for sufficiency therefore makes $(n_1,\dots ,n_6)$ sufficient. Directly, all ordered samples with given counts have the same probability, so their conditional distribution is uniform over the $n!/\prod n_i!$ possible arrangements, independently of the $p_i$.

The unrestricted maximum-likelihood estimator is ${\hat{p}}_i=n_i/n$. Thus the generalized likelihood-ratio test useswith zero-count terms interpreted by continuity. Reject for small $\Lambda$, equivalently large $D$.

Write $n_i=n/6+{\delta }_i$, so $\sum {\delta }_i=0$. A Taylor series expansion of $(n/6+{\delta }_i)\log (1+6{\delta }_i/n)$ gives ${\delta }_i+3{\delta }_i^2/n+O(|{\delta }_i{|}^3/n^2)$. Summing cancels the linear terms, and yieldsUnder the null hypothesis, the multinomial central limit theorem places the standardized count deviations in the five-dimensional subspace with coordinate sum zero, with identity covariance on that subspace. Their squared norm consequently tends to the chi-squared distribution with five degrees of freedom. This gives the Pearson chi-squared goodness-of-fit test.

For $T=8.12$, the asymptotic p-value is about $0.150$. The 5% critical value of ${\chi }_5^2$ is approximately $11.07$. Do not reject at the usual 5% level, or at 10%. A significance level is not specified in the paper, so an unconditional yes-or-no decision is not determined: using this approximation, rejection would require a chosen level at least about $15\%$.

The likelihood function for the ordered arrival times of a Poisson process, including the absence of further arrivals before $T$, isThe arrival-time constraint does not depend on $\lambda$. Equivalently, the Poisson distribution of the total count gives $L(\lambda )=e^{-\lambda T}(\lambda T{)}^n/n!$, which differs by a parameter-independent factor. Conditional on the count, the Poisson process conditional arrival times have density $n!/T^n$, independent of $\lambda$. Thus the total count contains all the information about the rate when the exposure is known; it is a sufficient statistic.

The Shannon entropy of a finite-valued random variable isAn epsilon-sufficient set is a subset $S\subseteq {\mathcal{A}}_X$ retaining all but at most $ϵ$ of the probability:Usually $0\le ϵ\le 1$. Sufficiency here concerns retained probability mass, rather than a sufficient statistic.

A statistic $T$ is a sufficient statistic for $\theta$ if the conditional distribution of the data given $T$ does not depend on $\theta$. For a dominated family with density or mass function $f_{\theta }(x)$, the Fisher-Neyman factorization theorem states that this is equivalent towhere $h$ is nonnegative and independent of $\theta$, and $g_{\theta }$ is nonnegative and depends on the data only through $T$.

For a discrete sample space, suppose first that the factorization holds. If ${\mathbb{P}}_{\theta }(T=t)>0$, summing over the fibre gives ${\mathbb{P}}_{\theta }(T=t)=g_{\theta }(t){\sum }_{T(x)=t}h(x)$, soThis conditional distribution is independent of $\theta$, proving that $T$ is a sufficient statistic. Conversely, let $q_t(x)$ be the common conditional mass function guaranteed by the sufficient statistic property, for every fibre attainable under at least one parameter. Set $h(x)=q_{T(x)}(x)$ and $g_{\theta }(t)={\mathbb{P}}_{\theta }(T=t)$. Then ${\mathbb{P}}_{\theta }(X=x)=g_{\theta }(T(x))h(x)$. Fibres never attained under any parameter can be assigned any conditional distribution, since their multiplying probability is always zero. This proves both directions of the discrete criterion, including possible parameter-dependent supports.