This is an application of Talagrand's concentration inequality to certifiable functions. Talagrand's product-space inequality gives sub-Gaussian-type concentration for a bounded-differences, certifiable function, with a variance scale controlled by the certificate size.
Suppose an integer-valued certifiable function is -Lipschitz under one-coordinate changes and a value at least has a certificate of at most coordinates. Any input with value at most must differ on at least certificate positions. Equal weights on those positions bound its Talagrand convex distance from the low-value event. Applying Talagrand's convex distance inequality gives the displayed product bound. For , median tails integrate to , and deviations of order have exponentially small probability.
For the longest increasing subsequence length on a product space of independent coordinates, a witness of length uses only coordinates. Any point with subsequence length at most must differ on at least witness positions. Weights on those positions show . Thus for ,
At a median , this gives upper tail and lower tail . Integrating the tails places the mean within of the median, so the natural concentration scale near the mean is . A random permutation is represented by the ranks of independent continuous variables; arbitrary dependent sequences need not obey this conclusion.

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