The count has binomial distribution with mean and variance . The information content per symbol is an affine function of , so its variance is
Chebyshev's inequality therefore gives the finite-sample lower bound
The bound is often loose, but it proves that every fixed positive tolerance eventually captures nearly all the probability. Direct summation of the binomial distribution's probability masses gives . A finite sample does not need to have a nearly full typical set: the 40-symbol example above captures only about .
Figure 1.
Longer biased-coin messages concentrate in typical sets with controlled size
. The left plot compares exact typical set probabilities with the lower bound from Chebyshev's inequality. The right shows and its finite-sample bounds. The tolerance stays fixed; the curve is not asserted to converge to exactly . All points are exact finite-model calculations. Details.

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