Variance of cyclic Bernoulli run counts ($\mathrm{Var}X=n{p}^k(1-p^k)+2n{\sum }_{j=1}^{k-1}(p^{k+j}-p^{2k})$)

On a cyclic sequence of $n$ independent Bernoulli random variables with success probability $p$, count all runs of $k$ consecutive successes, allowing overlaps and taking $1\le k\le n/2$. The count has expected value $n{p}^k$. Its variance is the displayed expression: each starting indicator has variance $p^k(1-p^k)$; two starts at cyclic distance $j<k$ have joint probability $p^{k+j}$; nonoverlapping starts are independent. There are $2n$ ordered overlapping pairs at each such distance, because the two ranges do not meet when $k\le n/2$.

For $p\le 1/2$, summing a geometric series gives $\mathrm{Var}X\le n{p}^k(1+2p/(1-p))\le 3n{p}^k$. Markov's inequality therefore proves absence with high probability when $n{p}^k\to 0$, and Chebyshev's inequality proves existence and relative concentration when $n{p}^k\to \infty$. This remains valid for varying probabilities eventually at most one half.