Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 5 c i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
For each observed event with , let be its risk set. The Cox partial likelihood isMaximize it to obtain , estimate its variance from the observed partial information, and test using a partial likelihood-ratio test, Wald test, or score test. A positive fitted coefficient means the group with has the larger hazard.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 6 b ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Under a country-specific constant hazard survival model, let be the number of deaths and the total person-time at risk in country . The likelihood is proportional toso the maximum-likelihood estimator is . Test by a likelihood-ratio test, score test, or Wald test; equivalently, give a Poisson distribution with mean and test the country coefficient in a Poisson regression with offset .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 iii Paper 207 3 a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 ii Paper 4 13K b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
The estimates maximize the grouped-binomial likelihood, numerically obtained by iteratively reweighted least squares. At the fitted probabilities, the estimated covariance matrix is the inverse observed information, approximatelyThe
Std. Error column is the square root of its diagonal. Each z value is Estimate/Std. Error, and the two-sided Wald test p-value isfor the null hypothesis that the corresponding coefficient is zero.Thus is the fitted log odds for a nonmalignant patient at site A. The site coefficients compare B and C with A, while compares malignant with nonmalignant tumours after adjustment for site. In odds-ratio form,At level , the B-versus-A contrast is not significant (), the C-versus-A contrast is not significant (), and malignancy has a significant negative association with survival (). The intercept test merely compares the baseline survival probability with .
The null deviance compares the intercept-only fit with the saturated model and has residual degrees of freedom. The residual deviance compares the four-parameter fitted model with the saturated model and has degrees of freedom. Finally, the Akaike information criterion is
For independent effect estimates with standard error , and with standard error , one two-sided Wald test is significant at five percent and the other is not. But their difference is with standard error , giving a negligible test statistic. Hence different significance labels do not establish an interaction or between-study heterogeneity; compare the effects directly.
Treatment interaction contrast in a Poisson regression Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
In a Poisson regression with , the treatment logarithm of the mean ratio at baseline is . The main treatment coefficient tests the contrast at . An overall no-treatment test requires both and , with their joint covariance matrix for a Wald test.