For each observed event with , let be its risk set. The Cox partial likelihood is
Maximize it to obtain , estimate its variance from the observed partial information, and test using a partial likelihood-ratio test, Wald test, or score test. A positive fitted coefficient means the group with has the larger hazard.
Under a country-specific constant hazard survival model, let be the number of deaths and the total person-time at risk in country . The likelihood is proportional to
so the maximum-likelihood estimator is . Test by a likelihood-ratio test, score test, or Wald test; equivalently, give a Poisson distribution with mean and test the country coefficient in a Poisson regression with offset .
The pooled Wald test statistic is
In asymptotic calculations one replaces by its probability limit .
The estimates maximize the grouped-binomial likelihood, numerically obtained by iteratively reweighted least squares. At the fitted probabilities, the estimated covariance matrix is the inverse observed information, approximately
The Std. Error column is the square root of its diagonal. Each z value is Estimate/Std. Error, and the two-sided Wald test p-value is
for the null hypothesis that the corresponding coefficient is zero.
Thus is the fitted log odds for a nonmalignant patient at site A. The site coefficients compare B and C with A, while compares malignant with nonmalignant tumours after adjustment for site. In odds-ratio form,
At level , the B-versus-A contrast is not significant (), the C-versus-A contrast is not significant (), and malignancy has a significant negative association with survival (). The intercept test merely compares the baseline survival probability with .
The null deviance compares the intercept-only fit with the saturated model and has residual degrees of freedom. The residual deviance compares the four-parameter fitted model with the saturated model and has degrees of freedom. Finally, the Akaike information criterion is
For independent effect estimates with standard error , and with standard error , one two-sided Wald test is significant at five percent and the other is not. But their difference is with standard error , giving a negligible test statistic. Hence different significance labels do not establish an interaction or between-study heterogeneity; compare the effects directly.
Treatment interaction contrast in a Poisson regression Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
In a Poisson regression with , the treatment logarithm of the mean ratio at baseline is . The main treatment coefficient tests the contrast at . An overall no-treatment test requires both and , with their joint covariance matrix for a Wald test.
Independent normal arm means with variances give treatment-contrast Wald test statistics whose correlation coefficient is . The common control mean creates positive dependence between comparisons.