 Solution

Use a strictly positive bank account as numéraire, and write all prices and payoffs in discounted units. There are $d$ risky assets with deterministic initial price vector $S_0$, terminal price vector $S_1\in L^2(P)$, and gains $Y=S_1-S_0$. A self-financing portfolio with initial capital $x$ and constant risky holdings $\theta$ has discounted terminal wealth $x+{\theta }^{T}Y$. The initial amount in the bank account is $x-{\theta }^T{S}_0$, so $x$ denotes total initial capital, not just the cash holding. Assume the usual absence of arbitrage, and hence existence of an equivalent martingale measure; wherever a general probability space is used below, explicitly assume that such a measure exists and makes the asset payoffs integrable.

The attainable claims are precisely the linear subspaceThe finite-dimensional subspace is closed, so every square-integrable contingent claim $H$ has a unique orthogonal projection onto $\mathcal{A}$. This is its optimal one-period least-squares hedging payoff. Holdings are unique after redundant assets have been removed. Putand suppose the remaining covariance matrix $C$ is invertible. Expanding the squared error givesFirst minimize over $x$, then complete the square in $\theta$. ThusThe residual $L=H-x_{\ast }-{\theta }_{\ast }^{T}Y$ satisfiesIndeed, every other squared error equals this minimum plusThis proves optimality, and also shows that zero error is equivalent to attainability of a European contingent claim. If initial capital $x$ is prescribed instead, the normal equations for linear least squares give $\mathbb{E}[Y{Y}^T]\theta =\mathbb{E}[Y(H-x)]$; one must not use the free-capital formula without this adjustment.

A dominated martingale measure is a probability measure $Q\ll P$ such that ${\mathbb{E}}_{Q}Y=0$. Its Radon-Nikodym derivative $Z$ satisfies $Z\ge 0$, ${\mathbb{E}}_{P}Z=1$, and ${\mathbb{E}}_P[ZY]=0$. An equivalent martingale measure additionally requires $Z>0$ almost surely. Every integrable attainable claim $H=x+{\theta }^{T}Y$ then has price $x={\mathbb{E}}_{Q}H$, independent of which such measure is chosen. For an unattainable contingent claim, different dominated martingale measures can give different prices; least-squares approximation chooses a projection criterion rather than exact replication.

Write $Y=m+M$, where $M=Y-m$ is the centered martingale part of the one-period gains. The minimal martingale measure in a one-period market changes the means of the traded gains to zero while preserving all square-integrable mean-zero directions $L$ orthogonal to $M$. Its candidate density isDirect computation gives ${\mathbb{E}}_P{Z}_{\ast }=1$ and ${\mathbb{E}}_P[Z_{\ast }Y]=m-C{C}^{-1}m=0$. If ${\mathbb{E}}_{P}L=0$ and ${\mathbb{E}}_P[ML]=0$, then ${\mathbb{E}}_P[Z_{\ast }L]=0$, as required. Conversely, an $L^2$ density with this preservation property is orthogonal to the orthogonal complement of $\mathrm{span}\{1,M_1,\dots ,M_d\}$, so it lies in that span. Its normalization and martingale constraints force exactly $Z_{\ast }$. Moreover,Every other square-integrable signed pricing density has the form $Z_{\ast }+D$, with $D$ orthogonal to $1$ and $Y$, hence to $Z_{\ast }$. Thereforeso the minimal density is also the minimum-norm one-period pricing weight. This coincidence concerns one period; it is not an unrestricted assertion about dynamic hedging models.

Positivity needs checking. If $Z_{\ast }>0$ it defines an equivalent martingale measure; if merely $Z_{\ast }\ge 0$, it defines a dominated martingale measure. Otherwise it defines only a signed martingale measure. For example, take $S_0=2$ and $Y=-1,1,3$ with physical probabilities $1/100,89/100,10/100$. Then $m=59/50$, $C=1019/2500$, and $Z_{\ast }=-4350/1019$ in the third state. There is nonetheless an equivalent martingale measure assigning probabilities $3/5,3/10,1/10$, whose mean gain is zero. Thus absence of arbitrage does not guarantee positivity of the least-squares density, and a least-squares initial cost need not be an arbitrage-free price for an unattainable payoff.

Finally prove completeness and uniqueness of dominated martingale measures. Suppose first that every bounded contingent claim is attainable. For any event $A$, replicate $1_A=x_A+{\theta }_A^{T}Y$. Under any dominated martingale measure, $Q(A)=x_A$. Thus all such measures agree on every event. Existence follows from our no-arbitrage assumption, giving uniqueness.

Conversely, fix an equivalent martingale measure $Q_0$, and let $k=\dim \mathcal{A}$. If the probability space admits $k+1$ disjoint events $A_1,\dots ,A_{k+1}$ of positive probability, choose a basis $a_1,\dots ,a_k$ of $\mathcal{A}$, including $1$. The $k\times (k+1)$ matrix with entries ${\mathbb{E}}_{Q_0}[a_i{1}_{A_j}]$ has a nonzero null vector $(c_j)$. Consequently the bounded, nonzero random variablesatisfies ${\mathbb{E}}_{Q_0}h=0$ and ${\mathbb{E}}_{Q_0}[hY]=0$. For $0<|\epsilon |<1/\Vert h{\Vert }_{\infty }$, defineThese are distinct equivalent martingale measures, because their densities are positive and their gain moments remain zero. Thus uniqueness rules out such a partition. A probability space with no $k+1$ disjoint positive-probability events consists, modulo null sets, of at most $k$ atoms: repeatedly split any non-atomic positive event to obtain a larger finite partition. On $N$ atoms the payoff space has dimension $N$, while $\mathcal{A}$ has dimension $k\le N$. Hence $N=k$ and $\mathcal{A}$ is the whole payoff space. Every contingent claim is attainable. This provesHere completeness means all bounded claims, or all square-integrable claims in the $L^2$ formulation. The existence/no-arbitrage hypothesis matters: on a one-state space, cash and a stock with a sure positive discounted gain span every payoff, but no dominated martingale measure can make that gain have zero mean.